11 Temmuz 2012 Çarşamba
10 Temmuz 2012 Salı
9 Temmuz 2012 Pazartesi
Episode 35: Kurt Vile
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Photo by Christopher Canning. Air Date: February 27, 2011.
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1. John Fahey - The Red Pony2. The War on Drugs - Baby Missiles3. Purling Hiss - Porch Dude (Slight Return)4. Creepoid - Rave Blanket5. Jay Crocker - Super Disease6. Kurt Vile - In My Time7. Kurt Vile - Songs For John in D8. Kurt Vile - Don't Get Cute9. Kurt Vile - Summer Demons10. Kurt Vile - Good Lookin' Out11. Kurt Vile - Amplifier12. Kurt Vile - Invisibility: Nonexistent
Photo by Christopher Canning. Air Date: February 27, 2011.
Download
1. John Fahey - The Red Pony2. The War on Drugs - Baby Missiles3. Purling Hiss - Porch Dude (Slight Return)4. Creepoid - Rave Blanket5. Jay Crocker - Super Disease6. Kurt Vile - In My Time7. Kurt Vile - Songs For John in D8. Kurt Vile - Don't Get Cute9. Kurt Vile - Summer Demons10. Kurt Vile - Good Lookin' Out11. Kurt Vile - Amplifier12. Kurt Vile - Invisibility: Nonexistent
Top Down Can Work
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One of the things that makes managing money a lot of fun (for me anyway) is that there is always opportunity to observe and learn (same with firefighting) or confirm some things. One building block of how I manage money and what I've written about for the last eight years is top down portfolio management.
Top down places the most importance on being in or out of the market. Over the years I've seen several studies that attribute 70% of returns to being in or out. An example I used when I first started this site was in 2000 would it have been easier to simply avoid stocks or find the few stocks that somehow went up as the market was cutting in half. I think the same thing applies to late 2007.
Top down would then say that the next 20% of returns is attributable to sector and country decisions and the final and least important 10% comes from stock selection. In practice this would play out with most of the names in a particular segment performing roughly in line with each other. Of course this is not a 100% certainty and the extent to which this occurs often enough would drive whether you think top down is best for you. It is right often enough for me.
The testing that we are doing for RRGR includes our placing a lot of mock trades for the portfolio. We are placing what amounts to paper trades and submitting them to Bank of New York so that they can account for the changes in the portfolio, calculate a mock NAV and create a mock basket for the fund. Many of the trades have been swapping like for like. So while there are quite a few names in the portfolio (this is a mock portfolio remember) that we don't own the portfolio has been behaving about the same as the regular portfolio.
As I believe in top down I am probably predisposed to see it this way and again, top down either resonates with you or it doesn't. That there can be less importance on stock picking means that investors can use things like sector and country funds for their portfolio while still managing the risk they are taking and the volatility they are exposing themselves to; for people who are inclined to take it that far.
The path here may not necessarily be about trying to beat the market but more along the lines of smoothing out your own ride and being reasonably close to the market. If you save enough and stay reasonably close then you've got a good chance of having enough when you need it.
Happy 4th.
Top down places the most importance on being in or out of the market. Over the years I've seen several studies that attribute 70% of returns to being in or out. An example I used when I first started this site was in 2000 would it have been easier to simply avoid stocks or find the few stocks that somehow went up as the market was cutting in half. I think the same thing applies to late 2007.
Top down would then say that the next 20% of returns is attributable to sector and country decisions and the final and least important 10% comes from stock selection. In practice this would play out with most of the names in a particular segment performing roughly in line with each other. Of course this is not a 100% certainty and the extent to which this occurs often enough would drive whether you think top down is best for you. It is right often enough for me.
The testing that we are doing for RRGR includes our placing a lot of mock trades for the portfolio. We are placing what amounts to paper trades and submitting them to Bank of New York so that they can account for the changes in the portfolio, calculate a mock NAV and create a mock basket for the fund. Many of the trades have been swapping like for like. So while there are quite a few names in the portfolio (this is a mock portfolio remember) that we don't own the portfolio has been behaving about the same as the regular portfolio.
As I believe in top down I am probably predisposed to see it this way and again, top down either resonates with you or it doesn't. That there can be less importance on stock picking means that investors can use things like sector and country funds for their portfolio while still managing the risk they are taking and the volatility they are exposing themselves to; for people who are inclined to take it that far.
The path here may not necessarily be about trying to beat the market but more along the lines of smoothing out your own ride and being reasonably close to the market. If you save enough and stay reasonably close then you've got a good chance of having enough when you need it.
Happy 4th.
A Retirement Success Story
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The daily retirement article at Yahoo yesterday came from Business Insider and featured a couple who moved from California to Argentina to buy a vineyard. Their are aspects to their story that are interesting as were some of the comments. I would note that the actual writing of the article seems to be quite poor for being light on crucial details and otherwise (unintentionally?) vague. Also of interest is that the husband of the featured couple was very engaged in the comments on the BI version. He may have been so on the Yahoo version but I did not read the hundreds of comments to know for sure.
The basic story seems to be that these folks had a keen interest in wine making. They ran the numbers on doing this in California and could not make their math work with California wine country prices so they spent a couple of years figuring out that for them Argentina was the answer. Forgetting the politics and inflation for a moment, stuff can grow in that part of the world--I wonder if they looked at Uruguay. maybe it was too expensive?
Since setting up shop they have also created some sort of business where they appear to lease out some if their land to people who are interested in owning a vineyard but on a small scale. The Phelans (the featured couple) provide the workers for the leased land (if lease is the correct word) and I'm guessing it is cash flow positive and puts a few more dollars in their pocket. The details as presented were very thin.
At this level the story speaks to a thread frequently mentioned here of monetizing a hobby, or maybe in this case passion is a better word and applying some ingenuity to make the venture more sustainable. Good for them if all of the above was interpreted correctly from the article.
Of the couple of dozen comments I did read at Yahoo quite a few jumped all over this quote from the article
The article says they spent $132,000 buying their vineyard. The numbers given along with what few details were written make this hard to envision. Readers at BI also wondered about this and the way I read Mr. Phelan's comments there did not seem to be a definitive answer from him. Even more puzzling was that the article said he was "an international speaker on IRA investments" which lead to more comments of disbelief as to only having $150,000. In the comments at BI he clarified that he speaks about buying real estate in IRA accounts. There was also talk of building a resort on their property.
Only having $150,000 given the circumstance described is difficult to understand so if this post makes its way to your news feed or alerts, Mr Phelan I think people would be curious. No one would reasonably expect you to divulge detailed personal information but based on the comment threads on both versions of the article I think people would like to know is the $150,000, plus social security, the totality of your financial picture?
The part where they have monetized their passion has seemed obvious to me for many years probably inspired by my neighbor and his backhoe. It seems like the Phelans only needed a couple of years to figure this out which if correct is pretty quick. I might expect it would take longer to work something out but on the other side of the coin some folks will fall into something by accident that works out very well. My older brother's inlaws retired to Santa Fe and ended up as caretakers on an estate for many years. While I don't know their particulars a free place to stay, small stipend and light work would be ideal for some people.
There was another comment thread about people needing to leave the country in order to afford retirement. These comments were more of an indictment of the current state of things in the US. A point made here in the past is that moving to another country is intriguing on some level to just about everyone in varying degrees. For some people it stops with a comment during House Hunters International, some folks might visit countries they hear are good places for Americans just to see and and some goes as far as "living" some place for six months to really check it out.
Some people love it and so it is right for them. My father has lived in Spain since 1980. He'll be 86 later this month, is quite fit but has had a couple of medical things come up that he's needed to get taken care of and he's done so there just fine. Medical care is one of the first things anyone thinks about in considering living abroad, I don't know what the reputation or perception is about Spain but so far so good for my father.
Medical care in the US can be dreadful in some places (I'm not sure I would get stitches at the hospital in Prescott) and patients can be just unlucky in hospitals with great reputations (Dick Schaap at Lenox Hill Hospital comes to mind).
The movie The Hangover Part 2 took place in Thailand and there was a joke in there when one of the characters got what I think was eight stitches for $6 and he asked "how do they do that?" The reality might be that the medical care will be fine except when it isn't and that definitely also applies here in the US too.
The people profiled in the above article (questions about money notwithstanding) found a solution that works for them which is the bottom line. This is something we all must do for ourselves. The part from this story that resonates personally is monetizing a hobby/passion, less so moving to another country.
The basic story seems to be that these folks had a keen interest in wine making. They ran the numbers on doing this in California and could not make their math work with California wine country prices so they spent a couple of years figuring out that for them Argentina was the answer. Forgetting the politics and inflation for a moment, stuff can grow in that part of the world--I wonder if they looked at Uruguay. maybe it was too expensive?
Since setting up shop they have also created some sort of business where they appear to lease out some if their land to people who are interested in owning a vineyard but on a small scale. The Phelans (the featured couple) provide the workers for the leased land (if lease is the correct word) and I'm guessing it is cash flow positive and puts a few more dollars in their pocket. The details as presented were very thin.
At this level the story speaks to a thread frequently mentioned here of monetizing a hobby, or maybe in this case passion is a better word and applying some ingenuity to make the venture more sustainable. Good for them if all of the above was interpreted correctly from the article.
Of the couple of dozen comments I did read at Yahoo quite a few jumped all over this quote from the article
...they were facing a bleak reality: The $150,000 they'd managed to stash for their golden years wasn't going to stretch very far in the states.
The article says they spent $132,000 buying their vineyard. The numbers given along with what few details were written make this hard to envision. Readers at BI also wondered about this and the way I read Mr. Phelan's comments there did not seem to be a definitive answer from him. Even more puzzling was that the article said he was "an international speaker on IRA investments" which lead to more comments of disbelief as to only having $150,000. In the comments at BI he clarified that he speaks about buying real estate in IRA accounts. There was also talk of building a resort on their property.
Only having $150,000 given the circumstance described is difficult to understand so if this post makes its way to your news feed or alerts, Mr Phelan I think people would be curious. No one would reasonably expect you to divulge detailed personal information but based on the comment threads on both versions of the article I think people would like to know is the $150,000, plus social security, the totality of your financial picture?
The part where they have monetized their passion has seemed obvious to me for many years probably inspired by my neighbor and his backhoe. It seems like the Phelans only needed a couple of years to figure this out which if correct is pretty quick. I might expect it would take longer to work something out but on the other side of the coin some folks will fall into something by accident that works out very well. My older brother's inlaws retired to Santa Fe and ended up as caretakers on an estate for many years. While I don't know their particulars a free place to stay, small stipend and light work would be ideal for some people.
There was another comment thread about people needing to leave the country in order to afford retirement. These comments were more of an indictment of the current state of things in the US. A point made here in the past is that moving to another country is intriguing on some level to just about everyone in varying degrees. For some people it stops with a comment during House Hunters International, some folks might visit countries they hear are good places for Americans just to see and and some goes as far as "living" some place for six months to really check it out.
Some people love it and so it is right for them. My father has lived in Spain since 1980. He'll be 86 later this month, is quite fit but has had a couple of medical things come up that he's needed to get taken care of and he's done so there just fine. Medical care is one of the first things anyone thinks about in considering living abroad, I don't know what the reputation or perception is about Spain but so far so good for my father.
Medical care in the US can be dreadful in some places (I'm not sure I would get stitches at the hospital in Prescott) and patients can be just unlucky in hospitals with great reputations (Dick Schaap at Lenox Hill Hospital comes to mind).
The movie The Hangover Part 2 took place in Thailand and there was a joke in there when one of the characters got what I think was eight stitches for $6 and he asked "how do they do that?" The reality might be that the medical care will be fine except when it isn't and that definitely also applies here in the US too.
The people profiled in the above article (questions about money notwithstanding) found a solution that works for them which is the bottom line. This is something we all must do for ourselves. The part from this story that resonates personally is monetizing a hobby/passion, less so moving to another country.
The Big Picture For The Week of July 8, 2012
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A couple of days ago I stumbled across a very interesting stock; PDL Biopharma (PDLI). I remember this name from quite a few years ago getting highly touted by someone and while I don't recall the specifics from back then I remember being compelled (never bought). The company has since gone through some sort of transformation (anyone knowing the details please comment). During the worst of the financial crisis it fell 76% per Google Finance but that may not be accounting for a one time dividend of $4.25 in 2008.
Since the March 2009 low the stock is up 15% but in 2009 it skyrocketed up, then came back down but that may not be accounting for another one time dividend of $1.67 in 2009. For the last couple of years it has had very little volatility, has been very cheap statistically and has a very high yield of 8.8%. Basically the company gets royalty payments for the use of its technology with the big money maker being the Queen et al patent portfolio.
The catch here is that the patents start to expire slowly in 2013 with an expiration cliff coming in late 2014. There will be continued revenue to some degree after the expirations but the fortunes of the company look like they will change meaningfully after the expiration cliff.
I saw the name and the yield somewhere so the first thing I did was look at it on Yahoo Finance to understand the basic numbers--this is backward looking but there is nothing wrong with understanding where a stock has come from just make sure you look forward before you buy. The second thing I did was look to see if there were any articles on Seeking Alpha about it and there were a couple of recent ones including this one from someone named Paulo Santos.
Just a quick side note here, you do need to be very careful with SA articles but I found a couple that outlined the bullish argument and in the comments some folks mentioned the bear case. Knowing nothing about the name I got a sense of both sides to then further research if I was so inclined.
The Santos article went into great detail on the bear case including a slide from the company detailing what needs to happen for the company to do well past the expiration cliff. It did not take much time for me to decide I'll pass for the simple reason the end is a very tangible thing in just two and half years. It could remain viable after that time but the catalyst for the end is too soon and too simple for me to be comfortable. If the company is going to expire with the patent portfolio I would expect the stock to start pricing that in much sooner than 30 months from now--the market is forward looking after all.
As one comment from one of the articles reminded, it has an almost 9% yield for a reason. A point I have made before is that a, in this case, 9% yield in a 0% world is telling you there is a risk regardless of whether you can figure out what the risk is. In this case you can figure out the risk--the money maker may stop making money in 30 months.
Actually though the point of this post is not about whether to buy the stock or not but about the devotion to the stock in the comments on Santos' article. On last look there were 57 comments and the thread was probably one of the most entertaining I've ever read. Some comments defending PDLI expressed a belief that the company is doing what it needs to seek new revenue sources and get more life out of the expiring patents and maybe that is true and maybe the company will be alright.
Some of the other comments defending the stock were from people very content to collect the dividend for the next two and half years and then get out. In these comments there seemed to be no mention, so I assume no understanding, that if the company cannot mitigate the threat from the expiration the stock will start pricing in its demise long before the actual cliff arrives. Santos was very engaged in the conversation and I believe it would be correct to say that many of his answers boiled down to "did you look at the slide in the article and do you realize it is from the company?"
This one is easy in that both sides are easily articulated and anyone with any interest can decide on an easily framed debate. The important takeaway is the apparent emotion and devotion to the stock. Read the comments and decide for yourself about emotion and devotion but that is what I think I am reading and I would caution about too much of either in analyzing the merits of a stock.
A given stock either turns out to be a good hold or a bad hold or maybe it starts out well and something changes but owning a stock requires understanding what a company is and where it has come from and then being able to objectively monitor the future prospects and any changes in the future prospects. This becomes more difficult when a strong emotional attachment is formed.
Since the March 2009 low the stock is up 15% but in 2009 it skyrocketed up, then came back down but that may not be accounting for another one time dividend of $1.67 in 2009. For the last couple of years it has had very little volatility, has been very cheap statistically and has a very high yield of 8.8%. Basically the company gets royalty payments for the use of its technology with the big money maker being the Queen et al patent portfolio.
The catch here is that the patents start to expire slowly in 2013 with an expiration cliff coming in late 2014. There will be continued revenue to some degree after the expirations but the fortunes of the company look like they will change meaningfully after the expiration cliff.
I saw the name and the yield somewhere so the first thing I did was look at it on Yahoo Finance to understand the basic numbers--this is backward looking but there is nothing wrong with understanding where a stock has come from just make sure you look forward before you buy. The second thing I did was look to see if there were any articles on Seeking Alpha about it and there were a couple of recent ones including this one from someone named Paulo Santos.
Just a quick side note here, you do need to be very careful with SA articles but I found a couple that outlined the bullish argument and in the comments some folks mentioned the bear case. Knowing nothing about the name I got a sense of both sides to then further research if I was so inclined.
The Santos article went into great detail on the bear case including a slide from the company detailing what needs to happen for the company to do well past the expiration cliff. It did not take much time for me to decide I'll pass for the simple reason the end is a very tangible thing in just two and half years. It could remain viable after that time but the catalyst for the end is too soon and too simple for me to be comfortable. If the company is going to expire with the patent portfolio I would expect the stock to start pricing that in much sooner than 30 months from now--the market is forward looking after all.
As one comment from one of the articles reminded, it has an almost 9% yield for a reason. A point I have made before is that a, in this case, 9% yield in a 0% world is telling you there is a risk regardless of whether you can figure out what the risk is. In this case you can figure out the risk--the money maker may stop making money in 30 months.
Actually though the point of this post is not about whether to buy the stock or not but about the devotion to the stock in the comments on Santos' article. On last look there were 57 comments and the thread was probably one of the most entertaining I've ever read. Some comments defending PDLI expressed a belief that the company is doing what it needs to seek new revenue sources and get more life out of the expiring patents and maybe that is true and maybe the company will be alright.
Some of the other comments defending the stock were from people very content to collect the dividend for the next two and half years and then get out. In these comments there seemed to be no mention, so I assume no understanding, that if the company cannot mitigate the threat from the expiration the stock will start pricing in its demise long before the actual cliff arrives. Santos was very engaged in the conversation and I believe it would be correct to say that many of his answers boiled down to "did you look at the slide in the article and do you realize it is from the company?"
This one is easy in that both sides are easily articulated and anyone with any interest can decide on an easily framed debate. The important takeaway is the apparent emotion and devotion to the stock. Read the comments and decide for yourself about emotion and devotion but that is what I think I am reading and I would caution about too much of either in analyzing the merits of a stock.
A given stock either turns out to be a good hold or a bad hold or maybe it starts out well and something changes but owning a stock requires understanding what a company is and where it has come from and then being able to objectively monitor the future prospects and any changes in the future prospects. This becomes more difficult when a strong emotional attachment is formed.
"Cognitive Deficits"
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Barry Ritholtz has been running a series called Top Ten Investor Errors with one post per error. Over the weekend was Cognitive Deficits which included this conclusion;
Chances are every investor has confronted this on at least some level ranging from self doubt on a particular trade to ongoing self awareness to continually address and mitigate the deficits Barry spelled out in his post and maybe ones not included.
The starting point might be in the stock market's average annual return. It used to be around 10% annualized but has come down a couple of points over the last decade or so. Whatever the average annual return, it includes feast, famine, bust and boom. Proper asset allocation and an adequate savings rate can get the job done, of course a little luck helps too.
The work any investor does beyond buying a broad index will either make it a little better, a little worse, a lot better or a lot worse. A lot worse probably happens a disproportionate amount of the time for all the reasons Barry mentions. People get greedy sometimes, fearful other times, are prone to repeat past destructive behaviors, forget that much of what is happening today (in terms of market action) has happened before and will happen again.
The S&P 500 cut in half a few years ago and based on comments on this blog and elsewhere it seemed as though many people had forgotten that this had just happened just a few years earlier. The market recovered from cutting in half 12 years ago and will recover from doing do in 2008-09 with the variable being how long it takes. This is about market behavior and is a building block for navigating market cycles.
This is a long winded way of saying markets work. Each person believes that or they don't--I do. It might be better to say markets work if you let them. Everyone comes at this differently but a lot of trading is not really letting markets work for you. More likely people who trade frequently are working the markets which is a tougher proposition and hopefully the market is not working them but of course that happens too.
Also in line with letting the market work for you (you knew this was coming, right?) is heeding when the market warns that risk of a large decline is heightened. This speaks to smoothing out the ride that you go on in your investing lifetime which circles back to cognitive deficits. Panic is a cognitive deficit and panic can be avoided if the portfolio doesn't go down as much as the market the next time something like 2008 comes along. You get there by having a trigger point for defensive action that you have some basis to believe will work and to which you can be disciplined.
In short, we are simply not wired for the required risk analysis inherent in investing.
Chances are every investor has confronted this on at least some level ranging from self doubt on a particular trade to ongoing self awareness to continually address and mitigate the deficits Barry spelled out in his post and maybe ones not included.
The starting point might be in the stock market's average annual return. It used to be around 10% annualized but has come down a couple of points over the last decade or so. Whatever the average annual return, it includes feast, famine, bust and boom. Proper asset allocation and an adequate savings rate can get the job done, of course a little luck helps too.
The work any investor does beyond buying a broad index will either make it a little better, a little worse, a lot better or a lot worse. A lot worse probably happens a disproportionate amount of the time for all the reasons Barry mentions. People get greedy sometimes, fearful other times, are prone to repeat past destructive behaviors, forget that much of what is happening today (in terms of market action) has happened before and will happen again.
The S&P 500 cut in half a few years ago and based on comments on this blog and elsewhere it seemed as though many people had forgotten that this had just happened just a few years earlier. The market recovered from cutting in half 12 years ago and will recover from doing do in 2008-09 with the variable being how long it takes. This is about market behavior and is a building block for navigating market cycles.
This is a long winded way of saying markets work. Each person believes that or they don't--I do. It might be better to say markets work if you let them. Everyone comes at this differently but a lot of trading is not really letting markets work for you. More likely people who trade frequently are working the markets which is a tougher proposition and hopefully the market is not working them but of course that happens too.
Also in line with letting the market work for you (you knew this was coming, right?) is heeding when the market warns that risk of a large decline is heightened. This speaks to smoothing out the ride that you go on in your investing lifetime which circles back to cognitive deficits. Panic is a cognitive deficit and panic can be avoided if the portfolio doesn't go down as much as the market the next time something like 2008 comes along. You get there by having a trigger point for defensive action that you have some basis to believe will work and to which you can be disciplined.
8 Temmuz 2012 Pazar
Conspiracy Theory: Apocalypse in Japan caused by HAARP?
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After a double disaster in Japan, earthquake and tsunami, and then multiple explosions damaged the Fukushima nuclear power plant on the internet are, as it usually happens after such events, conspiracy theories surfaced that for all the troubles in the 'land of the rising sun' blame the U.S. Active research program auroralnog high frequency or HAARP ( High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program).
Specifically, the conspirators argue that HAARP after weeks of silence electromagnetic turned around midnight in the GMT, or about 1 hour to CET-in, and has been heavily worked.
In his theories and presents evidence on the connection between HAARP and Japan showing clips from YouTube claiming that HAARP or similar device to control time has been used over the country. (video 1)
As a last powerful argument refer to the earthquake in Niigata Prefecture 2007th in respect of having an article titled " Western bankers threaten Japan HAARP's eco-destruction a year before the earthquake in China".
They warn that before the earthquake in Niigata, but also those in China and Chile, in the sky seen a strange light similar to a polar light. Conspirators claim that HAARP experts confirmed that the color of the sky caused by electromagnetic disturbance which is down from the ionosphere.
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Specifically, the conspirators argue that HAARP after weeks of silence electromagnetic turned around midnight in the GMT, or about 1 hour to CET-in, and has been heavily worked.
In his theories and presents evidence on the connection between HAARP and Japan showing clips from YouTube claiming that HAARP or similar device to control time has been used over the country. (video 1)
As a last powerful argument refer to the earthquake in Niigata Prefecture 2007th in respect of having an article titled " Western bankers threaten Japan HAARP's eco-destruction a year before the earthquake in China".
They warn that before the earthquake in Niigata, but also those in China and Chile, in the sky seen a strange light similar to a polar light. Conspirators claim that HAARP experts confirmed that the color of the sky caused by electromagnetic disturbance which is down from the ionosphere.
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Weakening of Earth's magnetic field and solar cycles
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User-agent: Mediapartners-Google
Disallow:
New solar cycle 24, in combination with the weakening MAGNETIC FIELD ENVIRONMENT, can have severe consequences for the country in terms CLIMATE, power networks and human behavior.
If you thought that only which is why we should be concerned about include wars, famine and economic breakdowns think again. Emerging science suggests that the next cycle of solar flares could be strong enough to disrupt the entire electrical grid of the planet. This article documents! I number of changes that occur in connection with the Earth magnetic field term. Sun and solar system and clarify some of the concerns expressed by today's leading scientists. I analyze how it could hit the human race on an energetic level.
Planet's magnetic field
Magnetosphere is a bubble of magnetism that surrounds Earth and protects us from solar wind. Fortunately, the planet's magnetic field rejects most of the particles in a circular orbit around the Earth. Like the weather patterns on Earth, the solar or wind patterns can change rapidly. It is fortunate that our planet's magnetosphere reacts to the threat and absorbs shock. without wavering, and leaping. Geophysicists call this reaction geomagnetic storm, but because of the way that distorts Earth's magnetic field also has to be called electromagnetic pollution. In these circumstances we see the polar light in our night sky.
But strange things are happening in the atmosphere and in space. Earth's magnetic field has been weakening. This decrease actually began 2,000 years ago, but the rate of decrease rapidly grew 300 years ago. However, in the last twenty years, the magnetic field has become erratic.
Aeronautical maps of the world, which is used to enable the aircraft has landed using automatic control systems had to be revised in the whole world to autopilot systems to work.
Now, NASA's five spacecraft from the mission THEMIS discovered a crack in the Earth's magnetic field that is 10 times larger than anything previously thought to exist When this happens, the solar wind can penetrate through the opening to "recharge" the magnetosphere, causing a strong geomagnetic storm. Exploring the mystery is a key goal of the THEMIS mission, launched in February 2007. The big discovery occurred on 3 June 2007. When the five probes serendipitously flew through the cracks just at the moment it opened. Onboard sensors recorded a torrent of solar wind particles streaming into the magnetosphere, signaling the event of unexpected size and importance.
But the breach itself is not the biggest surprise. Researchers are even more amazed and baffled at the unexpected way in which it occurs, overturning the accepted notions of space physics.
"At first I did believe it," said David Sibeck, THEMIS project scientist at the Center Goddard Space Flight Center. This finding fundamentally changes our understanding of the interaction of the solar wind and magnetosphere. The opening was a huge four times wider than Earth itself, said Li Wenhui, a space physicist from the University of New Hampshire, who analyzed the data. A hunting Li's colleague Jimmy Raeder, also of the University of New Hampshire. He said the 27-l particles per second were flowing into the magnetosphere - that's 1 followed by 27 zeros. This influx is an order of magnitude greater than what we thought was possible. Space physicists have long believed that the holes in the Earth's magnetosphere open only in response to solar magnetic fields that are oriented toward the south. However, a large hole in June 2oo7. opened in response to the solar magnetic field, which was directed towards the north. To the layperson it may seem like a quibble, but to a space physicist, it is almost like an earthquake.
Unexpected pad shield
In conjunction with changes in our magnetic field today in the scientific community believes that the solar wind pushes the Earth's magnetosphere almost directly above the equator, where the planet's magnetic field points north. Scientists had previously believed that if a large amount of solar magnetism is also directed towards the north, the two fields should reinforce one another, strengthening the defense of the Earth's magnetic closing door and the solar wind. Language of space physics, solar magnetic field points north is called the "northern IMF" (interplanetary magnetic field) and is synonymous with "shields".
The big surprise is that when a northern IMF shields off. It has completely overturned the understanding of many scientists. While researchers have investigated the gap in the magnetic field, they discovered that 20 times the solar wind enter the Earth's protective shield when the magnetic field was aligned.
Events with Northern IMF does not trigger geomagnetic storms, said Raeder, but creates conditions for the storm filling the magnetosphere with plasma.
Loaded magnetosphere is ready for the auroras, power outages and other disruptions that may occur when a CME (coronal mass ejection). This means that the impact of solar flares is 20 times stronger when the magnetic fields are aligned. The magnetic field of the earth and the sun will be aligned at the peak of Solar Cycle 24 which is expected in 2012. This will cause the flow of solar particles. What the researchers did not discuss the impact ua human bioelectric system.
Eart's magnetic field change
At the Earth's climate significantly affects the planet's magnetic field, according to the Danish study, published in January 2009. that could challenge the notion that human emissions responsible for global warming. Our results show a strong correlation between the strength of Earth's magnetic field and the amount of precipitation in the tropics, said one of the two Danish geophysicists involved in the study,
Faurschou Mads Knudsen from the Department of Geology University of Denmark Varhus newspaper Videnskab.
Results of the study (which was also published in the American scientific journal Geology) speak in favor of a controversial theory that a decade ago published Danish astrophysicist Henrik Svensmark. He claimed that the climate has a strong influence particles of galactic cosmic radiation (GCR), which penetrate into Earth's atmosphere.
TORQUE geomagnetic field
Bottom published other recent studies is the view that rapid changes in the turbulent movement of the Earth's liquid outer cortex attenuate the magnetic field in some regions of the planet's surface.
What is surprising is the fact that the Earth's magnetic field occur fast, almost instantaneous changes, "said study co-author Nils Olsen, a geophysicist at the Danish National Space Center in Copenhagen.
The results suggest that similar changes occur simultaneously velocity in liquid metal, 3,000 miles beneath the surface, ie said Olsen. Fluctuations in the magnetic field have occurred in some scattered regions on Earth.
These changes, "my point to the prospect of a trade geomagnetic field", ie co-author published a study, scientists from the German Research Centre for Geosciences in Potsdam. Earth's magnetic field reversed hundreds of times over the past billion years, and for the completion of this process might be needed thousands of years. The weakening of the magnetic field also opens up more layers of Earth's atmosphere to intense charged particle radiation. scientists have said.
Cosmic rays hitting Earth
An international team of researchers discovered a puzzling excess of high-energy electrons that bombard the Earth from space. The source of these cosmic rays is unknown, but it must be close to the solar system and could be made up of dark matter. The results reported by Nature magazine in its issue dated 20 November 2008. It is a great discovery, said co-author ie Jolm Wefel with Louisiana State University. "This is the first time we see a separate source of accelerated cosmic rays that stands out on the wider galactic background."
To study the strongest and most interesting cosmic rays, Wefel et al spent the last eight years managing a number of balloons in the stratosphere over Antarctica. Their cosmic ray detector, which is financed by NASA revealed a significant excess of high energy electrons.
"The source of these exotic electron must be relatively close to the solar system - located not more than one kiloparsec, - said co-author Jim Adams of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center Marshall. Galactic cosmic rays are subatomic particles accelerated to near light speed distant supernova explosions and other violent events.
One in crowds rushing through the Milky Way, creating a mist of high-energy particles that enter the solar system from all directions. Cosmic rays consist mostly of protons and heavier atomic nuclei with some electrons and photons as a spice in the mix. Why the source must be close? According to Adams: "High-energy electrons rapidly lose energy as they fly through the galaxy. They impart energy to the two main ways:
(1) clash with the lower-energy photons, in a process called inverse Compton scattering, and
(2) when the radiation is losing some of its energy in a spiral motion through the galactic magnetic fields. "
High-energy electrons because they are local, but researchers can not accurately locate the source in the sky.
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New solar cycle 24, in combination with the weakening MAGNETIC FIELD ENVIRONMENT, can have severe consequences for the country in terms CLIMATE, power networks and human behavior.
If you thought that only which is why we should be concerned about include wars, famine and economic breakdowns think again. Emerging science suggests that the next cycle of solar flares could be strong enough to disrupt the entire electrical grid of the planet. This article documents! I number of changes that occur in connection with the Earth magnetic field term. Sun and solar system and clarify some of the concerns expressed by today's leading scientists. I analyze how it could hit the human race on an energetic level.
Planet's magnetic field
Magnetosphere is a bubble of magnetism that surrounds Earth and protects us from solar wind. Fortunately, the planet's magnetic field rejects most of the particles in a circular orbit around the Earth. Like the weather patterns on Earth, the solar or wind patterns can change rapidly. It is fortunate that our planet's magnetosphere reacts to the threat and absorbs shock. without wavering, and leaping. Geophysicists call this reaction geomagnetic storm, but because of the way that distorts Earth's magnetic field also has to be called electromagnetic pollution. In these circumstances we see the polar light in our night sky.
But strange things are happening in the atmosphere and in space. Earth's magnetic field has been weakening. This decrease actually began 2,000 years ago, but the rate of decrease rapidly grew 300 years ago. However, in the last twenty years, the magnetic field has become erratic.
Aeronautical maps of the world, which is used to enable the aircraft has landed using automatic control systems had to be revised in the whole world to autopilot systems to work.
Now, NASA's five spacecraft from the mission THEMIS discovered a crack in the Earth's magnetic field that is 10 times larger than anything previously thought to exist When this happens, the solar wind can penetrate through the opening to "recharge" the magnetosphere, causing a strong geomagnetic storm. Exploring the mystery is a key goal of the THEMIS mission, launched in February 2007. The big discovery occurred on 3 June 2007. When the five probes serendipitously flew through the cracks just at the moment it opened. Onboard sensors recorded a torrent of solar wind particles streaming into the magnetosphere, signaling the event of unexpected size and importance.
But the breach itself is not the biggest surprise. Researchers are even more amazed and baffled at the unexpected way in which it occurs, overturning the accepted notions of space physics.
"At first I did believe it," said David Sibeck, THEMIS project scientist at the Center Goddard Space Flight Center. This finding fundamentally changes our understanding of the interaction of the solar wind and magnetosphere. The opening was a huge four times wider than Earth itself, said Li Wenhui, a space physicist from the University of New Hampshire, who analyzed the data. A hunting Li's colleague Jimmy Raeder, also of the University of New Hampshire. He said the 27-l particles per second were flowing into the magnetosphere - that's 1 followed by 27 zeros. This influx is an order of magnitude greater than what we thought was possible. Space physicists have long believed that the holes in the Earth's magnetosphere open only in response to solar magnetic fields that are oriented toward the south. However, a large hole in June 2oo7. opened in response to the solar magnetic field, which was directed towards the north. To the layperson it may seem like a quibble, but to a space physicist, it is almost like an earthquake.
Unexpected pad shield
In conjunction with changes in our magnetic field today in the scientific community believes that the solar wind pushes the Earth's magnetosphere almost directly above the equator, where the planet's magnetic field points north. Scientists had previously believed that if a large amount of solar magnetism is also directed towards the north, the two fields should reinforce one another, strengthening the defense of the Earth's magnetic closing door and the solar wind. Language of space physics, solar magnetic field points north is called the "northern IMF" (interplanetary magnetic field) and is synonymous with "shields".
The big surprise is that when a northern IMF shields off. It has completely overturned the understanding of many scientists. While researchers have investigated the gap in the magnetic field, they discovered that 20 times the solar wind enter the Earth's protective shield when the magnetic field was aligned.
Events with Northern IMF does not trigger geomagnetic storms, said Raeder, but creates conditions for the storm filling the magnetosphere with plasma.
Loaded magnetosphere is ready for the auroras, power outages and other disruptions that may occur when a CME (coronal mass ejection). This means that the impact of solar flares is 20 times stronger when the magnetic fields are aligned. The magnetic field of the earth and the sun will be aligned at the peak of Solar Cycle 24 which is expected in 2012. This will cause the flow of solar particles. What the researchers did not discuss the impact ua human bioelectric system.
Eart's magnetic field change
At the Earth's climate significantly affects the planet's magnetic field, according to the Danish study, published in January 2009. that could challenge the notion that human emissions responsible for global warming. Our results show a strong correlation between the strength of Earth's magnetic field and the amount of precipitation in the tropics, said one of the two Danish geophysicists involved in the study,
Faurschou Mads Knudsen from the Department of Geology University of Denmark Varhus newspaper Videnskab.
Results of the study (which was also published in the American scientific journal Geology) speak in favor of a controversial theory that a decade ago published Danish astrophysicist Henrik Svensmark. He claimed that the climate has a strong influence particles of galactic cosmic radiation (GCR), which penetrate into Earth's atmosphere.
TORQUE geomagnetic field
Bottom published other recent studies is the view that rapid changes in the turbulent movement of the Earth's liquid outer cortex attenuate the magnetic field in some regions of the planet's surface.
What is surprising is the fact that the Earth's magnetic field occur fast, almost instantaneous changes, "said study co-author Nils Olsen, a geophysicist at the Danish National Space Center in Copenhagen.
The results suggest that similar changes occur simultaneously velocity in liquid metal, 3,000 miles beneath the surface, ie said Olsen. Fluctuations in the magnetic field have occurred in some scattered regions on Earth.
These changes, "my point to the prospect of a trade geomagnetic field", ie co-author published a study, scientists from the German Research Centre for Geosciences in Potsdam. Earth's magnetic field reversed hundreds of times over the past billion years, and for the completion of this process might be needed thousands of years. The weakening of the magnetic field also opens up more layers of Earth's atmosphere to intense charged particle radiation. scientists have said.
Cosmic rays hitting Earth
An international team of researchers discovered a puzzling excess of high-energy electrons that bombard the Earth from space. The source of these cosmic rays is unknown, but it must be close to the solar system and could be made up of dark matter. The results reported by Nature magazine in its issue dated 20 November 2008. It is a great discovery, said co-author ie Jolm Wefel with Louisiana State University. "This is the first time we see a separate source of accelerated cosmic rays that stands out on the wider galactic background."
To study the strongest and most interesting cosmic rays, Wefel et al spent the last eight years managing a number of balloons in the stratosphere over Antarctica. Their cosmic ray detector, which is financed by NASA revealed a significant excess of high energy electrons.
"The source of these exotic electron must be relatively close to the solar system - located not more than one kiloparsec, - said co-author Jim Adams of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center Marshall. Galactic cosmic rays are subatomic particles accelerated to near light speed distant supernova explosions and other violent events.
One in crowds rushing through the Milky Way, creating a mist of high-energy particles that enter the solar system from all directions. Cosmic rays consist mostly of protons and heavier atomic nuclei with some electrons and photons as a spice in the mix. Why the source must be close? According to Adams: "High-energy electrons rapidly lose energy as they fly through the galaxy. They impart energy to the two main ways:
(1) clash with the lower-energy photons, in a process called inverse Compton scattering, and
(2) when the radiation is losing some of its energy in a spiral motion through the galactic magnetic fields. "
High-energy electrons because they are local, but researchers can not accurately locate the source in the sky.
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Weakening of Earth's magnetic field and solar cycles, Part 2
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The sun is a huge electromagnetic transmitter that is flooding the planet of the solar system by heat, light, UV radiation and electrically charged particles. The Sun itself has a magnetic field and magnetic field creates an "egg" around the solar system known as heliosphere. Heliosphere is shaped like a droplet, with an elongated, narrow end pointing in the opposite direction in which we move.
Any change that occurs in or on the Sun will eventually affect every living person. Solar activity during this last sunspot cycle was the solar is greater than anything previously seen, spinal studies, written by Dr. Mike
Lockvvood and colleagues at the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory in Chilton, UK, 1999. investigate the solar activity over the last 100 years. They reported that since 1901. total solar magnetic field has become stronger by 230 percent. Scientists do not understand what it means for us.
Some of the sunspot activity in this last cycle was stronger than anything ever recorded. But researchers say do not understand what it means for us. Apparently, the sun ie earth's driving force, said Richard Fisher Director of helio physics at NASA. To mitigate possible threats to public safety, it is crucial to better understand the extreme space weather events caused by solar activity.
Solar cycle 24
According to NASA, the Sun begins another 11-year cycle of activity. The sun reverses its magnetic poles every a year. Given that the Sun is responsible for some adverse climate changes on Earth the next decade could bring more trouble for our planet. The years ahead could be tumultuous. Jimmy Raeder explained:
"We enter the 24th solar cycle 1z reasons not fully understood, CME and the even-numbered solar cycles (such as 24) are usually hit Earth with a leading edge that is magnetized north. CMF This should open a crack and fill the magnetosphere with plasma just before the storm. This is a perfect sequence for a really great event. "
Every 10-11 years the number of sunspots is our closest star rise from zero (as it was in 2008.) To a maximum of over four hundred. While the sunspots affect the Earth, solar flares and other disturbances that are spreading around our sun during increased sunspot activity lead to an increase in the number of particles (electrons and protons) and harmful light radiation (ultraviolet and X-rays), known as solar wind. Yes No
Earth's protective magnetic field and atmosphere, this bombardment of particles would completely burn us. Sunspot Cycle 24, which is expected to peak somewhere in the 2012th, it could be one of the strongest in the last few centuries.
It will be 30-50 percent stronger than last and will start with a delay of a full year, the revolutionary foresight that uses a computer model of solar dynamics developed by scientists who are from the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Accurate prediction of solar cycles years in advance will help the company to prepare for active gust of solar storms, which can slow satellite orbits, disrupt communications and bring down power systems. Scientists have confidence in the forecasts because of a series of tests recently developed model simulated the strength of the last eight cycles with an accuracy of over 98 percent. Forecasts are generated in part by monitoring the movement of debris below the surface of sunspots from the previous two solar cycles.
Solar cycle 25
"The great conveyor belt" is a huge circulating current of fire (hot plasma) within the Sun. There are two branches, north and south, and each takes about 10 years to pass a full circle. The researchers believe that turning the conveyor belt controls the sunspot cycle and therefore it is important to slow down.
Usually, the conveyor belt moving at a speed of about one meter per second speed walk, NASA said in Solana physicist David Hathaway. "That was the end of the 19th century, "In recent years, however, the belt has decelerated to 0.75 m / s in the north of 0.35 m / s in the south. "We have never seen so low, said Hathaway."
According to the theory and observation, the speed of the belt says it will be the intensity of sunspot activity about 20 years in the future. Slow belt means lower solar activity; fast belt means stronger activity.
"The slowdown that we see now means that Solar Cycle 25, which will be the culmination of about 2022nd year could be one of the weakest in the last century, said Hathaway.
The solar activity on the Earth
The first instrument for measuring the activity of solar flares have occurred 440 years ago. They showed that the closest star to our Earth is not only the honor of eclipses. Sunspots, solar flares and other phenomena affect everything on earth, from weather events to human behavior. These phenomena are known collectively as the solar activity. This activity, which is expressed by a gust of solar radiation, magnetic storms and fiery flashes, the intensity can vary from very weak to very strong. The greatest threat to civilization are the storms.
On 28 August 1859th polar light shone and sparkled over the entire American continent, when darkness fell. Many people thought that their city is in flames. The hands on the instruments that were used for recording Uh magnetic fluctuations around the world came out of the scale. Telegraph system broke down, hit by strong surges. It was perhaps the worst solar storms in the past, 200 years ago. Its effects on humans were small because civilization had not yet been entered into high-technology development phase. But with the advent of modern electricity grids and satellites is much more in danger.
That something similar happened in our era of space nuclear destruction would be catastrophic. According to scientific data, a storm of this size occur about once in five centuries. But half of low-intensity events occur every 50 years. The last recorded 13th November 1960 .. Disrupted the Earth's magnetic field, disrupting the work stations.
Today is our dependence on radio-electronic devices so huge that increased solar activity could be disabled for life support systems around the world, and not just on the surface. Bad space weather can cause disturbances in any orbital system, light solar storm can ruin navigation systems controlled from space. NASA is now ringing the alarm because the North American continent near the northern magnetic pole, and is most sensitive to solar activity, spinal studies corporation "Metatech" revealed that the attack similar to the one from 1859. disable the entire power grid in North America. Even the relatively weak magnetic storm of 1989. encourage solar activity caused the accident in a Canadian hydroelectric power plant that is six million people in the United States and Canada for nine hours left without electricity.
Study of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, also spoke about the troubling features of the Earth in the worst case scenario of solar storms. Modern power grids are so interconnected that the large space storms - type such as expected to occur once in a century could trigger a cascade of crashes that could be expanded throughout the United States, left without electricity for 130 million people or more only in that country, the conclusion a new report. Such widespread power cuts although, as expected, a rare ability to hit other vital systems.
"The impact would be felt on the interdependent infrastructures, for example, drinking water supply would be affected for several hours, quickly perishable foods and medicines for about 12-24 hours. and the current or subsequent loss of heating / air conditioning, garbage disposal, telephone service, transportation, fuel supply and clock on, "the report reads.
To fix the system could be taken months, the bank could be close, and trade with other countries could be interrupted.
"Emergency services would be overloaded, and command and control could be lost," say researchers led by Daniel Baker, director of the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, University of Colorado at Boulder.
Sun's cycles and human behavior
Could cycles of war and peace could be associated with the solar cycle?
Some researchers claim that geomagnetic storms affect brain waves and hormone levels, causing many different reactions, mainly in men. Although some women may also feel the changes during these storms, it seems that they are generally less affected by the behavior of the Sun. Reacting to changing hormone levels, some men may become increasingly irritable and aggressive, while others may instead become more creative.
It was found that an increase in solar activity increase psychotic episodes in people who already suffer from unstable psychological states. Although we may associate such behavior with a full moon, Dr. Robert Becker and his colleague Dr. Howard Friedman 1963rd demonstrated that changes in the sun and water to a noticeable increase in psychotic activity. Yet, these reactions do not occur only in a few particularly sensitive or unlucky individuals.
Evidence suggesting that the wars and international conflicts often break out when sunspots are rapidly forming or rapidly decaying, because in these conditions occur more intense geomagnetic storms. In addition. to an increase in solar activity are correlated with periods when the increased number of accidents and diseases, as well as crimes and murders. The entire biosphere is affected by this electromagnetic pollution, and it seems that human behavior responds accordingly. Not cause any geomagnetic storm disturbances. But over time, extremes of solar activity can also affect the period of earthly conflict. Data on cycles of war and peace extend to at least 2,500 years old.
Another 1915th some scientists have begun to recognize the connection between solar activity and human behavior. This work began with Russian scientist Alevander Chizhevsky who observed a correlation between mass changes in human behavior and the cycle of sunspots.
The thirties of last century, Professor Raymond Wheeler, a historian at the University n Kansas, took this observation one step further. His research numerically ranked severity of individual battles correlating to solar cycles. The information obtained by statistically analyzing Edward Dewey, who confirmed the existence of these cycles of wars. However, he was unable to establish a clear link with the cycle of sunspots, because at that time was insufficient data.
The 1980s, with a detailed analysis Wheeler's data, is the connection became clear.
After a more detailed study of the data seems to begin to discover the pattern by which IE most likely to start a war in the key points of the sunspot cycle. These are periods when geomagnetic activity is changing the fastest in the rapid increase in solar activity, or in a downward cycle, when sunspots are rapidly diminishing. In addition, we can see how it negatively affects the psychological mechanisms such as brain rhythms and hormone levels. In other words, wars could be a kind of mass psychosis. When you see the connection with physical mechanisms (such as IE electromagnetic pollution), it gives us some predictions about when it is likely that they could begin intensified aggression. Calculations show that we are facing another increase of intense solar activity in less than two years, roughly around 22 September 2010. NASA predicts that the activity reached a peak in 2012. year.
Changes in the Solar System
Five planets atmosphere and Earth's moon change. In the upper layers of Earth's atmosphere creates HO gas that did not exist in amounts that exists today. Scientists from the Russian Academy of Sciences say that it is not associated with global warming, CFCs or fluorocarbon emissions. They argue that the atmosphere of Jupiter, Uranus and Neptun also changing.
The Martian atmosphere becomes much thicker. In 1997. probe "Mars Observer" has lost one of its mirrors, which caused her fall. This happened because the atmosphere was about twice as much too dense, but NASA was calculated. Brightness and magnetic fields of planets are also changing. Venus shows a significant increase in its overall brightness, Jupiter's energetic charge has risen so high that there is now a visible tube of ionizing radiation, which is formed between the surface of Jupiter and its moon "Io." At the recently captured images can be seen a great power tube. Uranus and Neptune also are becoming brighter. The magnetic field of Jupiter, Uranus and Neptune are changing.
Jupiter's magnetic field has more than doubled, and Neptune's magnetic field is stronger. The Russians say that all three of these planets become radiant, and their atmospheric qualities are changing, but do not explain what that means. The Russians also report that looks at how Uranus and Neptune has recently been a reversal of the poles. When the space probe "Voyager II" flew by Uranus and Neptune, it seemed that the north and south magnetic poles substantially deviated from the spot where the earlier recordings was a half rotation. In one case, it is 50 degrees, and in another case, the difference was 10-odd degrees.
This new information on changes in the solar system comes at an interesting time for our planet. It is possible that for some time the celestial events play a role in shaping our lives on this planet, and that these changes that we see now in our sun, solar system and Earth's magnetic field could be just what transforms our world as we know it into something new . Only time will tell, but it seems that the future is already knocking at the door.
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The sun is a huge electromagnetic transmitter that is flooding the planet of the solar system by heat, light, UV radiation and electrically charged particles. The Sun itself has a magnetic field and magnetic field creates an "egg" around the solar system known as heliosphere. Heliosphere is shaped like a droplet, with an elongated, narrow end pointing in the opposite direction in which we move.
Any change that occurs in or on the Sun will eventually affect every living person. Solar activity during this last sunspot cycle was the solar is greater than anything previously seen, spinal studies, written by Dr. Mike
Lockvvood and colleagues at the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory in Chilton, UK, 1999. investigate the solar activity over the last 100 years. They reported that since 1901. total solar magnetic field has become stronger by 230 percent. Scientists do not understand what it means for us.
Some of the sunspot activity in this last cycle was stronger than anything ever recorded. But researchers say do not understand what it means for us. Apparently, the sun ie earth's driving force, said Richard Fisher Director of helio physics at NASA. To mitigate possible threats to public safety, it is crucial to better understand the extreme space weather events caused by solar activity.
Solar cycle 24
According to NASA, the Sun begins another 11-year cycle of activity. The sun reverses its magnetic poles every a year. Given that the Sun is responsible for some adverse climate changes on Earth the next decade could bring more trouble for our planet. The years ahead could be tumultuous. Jimmy Raeder explained:
"We enter the 24th solar cycle 1z reasons not fully understood, CME and the even-numbered solar cycles (such as 24) are usually hit Earth with a leading edge that is magnetized north. CMF This should open a crack and fill the magnetosphere with plasma just before the storm. This is a perfect sequence for a really great event. "
Every 10-11 years the number of sunspots is our closest star rise from zero (as it was in 2008.) To a maximum of over four hundred. While the sunspots affect the Earth, solar flares and other disturbances that are spreading around our sun during increased sunspot activity lead to an increase in the number of particles (electrons and protons) and harmful light radiation (ultraviolet and X-rays), known as solar wind. Yes No
Earth's protective magnetic field and atmosphere, this bombardment of particles would completely burn us. Sunspot Cycle 24, which is expected to peak somewhere in the 2012th, it could be one of the strongest in the last few centuries.
It will be 30-50 percent stronger than last and will start with a delay of a full year, the revolutionary foresight that uses a computer model of solar dynamics developed by scientists who are from the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Accurate prediction of solar cycles years in advance will help the company to prepare for active gust of solar storms, which can slow satellite orbits, disrupt communications and bring down power systems. Scientists have confidence in the forecasts because of a series of tests recently developed model simulated the strength of the last eight cycles with an accuracy of over 98 percent. Forecasts are generated in part by monitoring the movement of debris below the surface of sunspots from the previous two solar cycles.
Solar cycle 25
"The great conveyor belt" is a huge circulating current of fire (hot plasma) within the Sun. There are two branches, north and south, and each takes about 10 years to pass a full circle. The researchers believe that turning the conveyor belt controls the sunspot cycle and therefore it is important to slow down.
Usually, the conveyor belt moving at a speed of about one meter per second speed walk, NASA said in Solana physicist David Hathaway. "That was the end of the 19th century, "In recent years, however, the belt has decelerated to 0.75 m / s in the north of 0.35 m / s in the south. "We have never seen so low, said Hathaway."
According to the theory and observation, the speed of the belt says it will be the intensity of sunspot activity about 20 years in the future. Slow belt means lower solar activity; fast belt means stronger activity.
"The slowdown that we see now means that Solar Cycle 25, which will be the culmination of about 2022nd year could be one of the weakest in the last century, said Hathaway.
The solar activity on the Earth
The first instrument for measuring the activity of solar flares have occurred 440 years ago. They showed that the closest star to our Earth is not only the honor of eclipses. Sunspots, solar flares and other phenomena affect everything on earth, from weather events to human behavior. These phenomena are known collectively as the solar activity. This activity, which is expressed by a gust of solar radiation, magnetic storms and fiery flashes, the intensity can vary from very weak to very strong. The greatest threat to civilization are the storms.
On 28 August 1859th polar light shone and sparkled over the entire American continent, when darkness fell. Many people thought that their city is in flames. The hands on the instruments that were used for recording Uh magnetic fluctuations around the world came out of the scale. Telegraph system broke down, hit by strong surges. It was perhaps the worst solar storms in the past, 200 years ago. Its effects on humans were small because civilization had not yet been entered into high-technology development phase. But with the advent of modern electricity grids and satellites is much more in danger.
That something similar happened in our era of space nuclear destruction would be catastrophic. According to scientific data, a storm of this size occur about once in five centuries. But half of low-intensity events occur every 50 years. The last recorded 13th November 1960 .. Disrupted the Earth's magnetic field, disrupting the work stations.
Today is our dependence on radio-electronic devices so huge that increased solar activity could be disabled for life support systems around the world, and not just on the surface. Bad space weather can cause disturbances in any orbital system, light solar storm can ruin navigation systems controlled from space. NASA is now ringing the alarm because the North American continent near the northern magnetic pole, and is most sensitive to solar activity, spinal studies corporation "Metatech" revealed that the attack similar to the one from 1859. disable the entire power grid in North America. Even the relatively weak magnetic storm of 1989. encourage solar activity caused the accident in a Canadian hydroelectric power plant that is six million people in the United States and Canada for nine hours left without electricity.
Study of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, also spoke about the troubling features of the Earth in the worst case scenario of solar storms. Modern power grids are so interconnected that the large space storms - type such as expected to occur once in a century could trigger a cascade of crashes that could be expanded throughout the United States, left without electricity for 130 million people or more only in that country, the conclusion a new report. Such widespread power cuts although, as expected, a rare ability to hit other vital systems.
"The impact would be felt on the interdependent infrastructures, for example, drinking water supply would be affected for several hours, quickly perishable foods and medicines for about 12-24 hours. and the current or subsequent loss of heating / air conditioning, garbage disposal, telephone service, transportation, fuel supply and clock on, "the report reads.
To fix the system could be taken months, the bank could be close, and trade with other countries could be interrupted.
"Emergency services would be overloaded, and command and control could be lost," say researchers led by Daniel Baker, director of the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, University of Colorado at Boulder.
Sun's cycles and human behavior
Could cycles of war and peace could be associated with the solar cycle?
Some researchers claim that geomagnetic storms affect brain waves and hormone levels, causing many different reactions, mainly in men. Although some women may also feel the changes during these storms, it seems that they are generally less affected by the behavior of the Sun. Reacting to changing hormone levels, some men may become increasingly irritable and aggressive, while others may instead become more creative.
It was found that an increase in solar activity increase psychotic episodes in people who already suffer from unstable psychological states. Although we may associate such behavior with a full moon, Dr. Robert Becker and his colleague Dr. Howard Friedman 1963rd demonstrated that changes in the sun and water to a noticeable increase in psychotic activity. Yet, these reactions do not occur only in a few particularly sensitive or unlucky individuals.
Evidence suggesting that the wars and international conflicts often break out when sunspots are rapidly forming or rapidly decaying, because in these conditions occur more intense geomagnetic storms. In addition. to an increase in solar activity are correlated with periods when the increased number of accidents and diseases, as well as crimes and murders. The entire biosphere is affected by this electromagnetic pollution, and it seems that human behavior responds accordingly. Not cause any geomagnetic storm disturbances. But over time, extremes of solar activity can also affect the period of earthly conflict. Data on cycles of war and peace extend to at least 2,500 years old.
Another 1915th some scientists have begun to recognize the connection between solar activity and human behavior. This work began with Russian scientist Alevander Chizhevsky who observed a correlation between mass changes in human behavior and the cycle of sunspots.
The thirties of last century, Professor Raymond Wheeler, a historian at the University n Kansas, took this observation one step further. His research numerically ranked severity of individual battles correlating to solar cycles. The information obtained by statistically analyzing Edward Dewey, who confirmed the existence of these cycles of wars. However, he was unable to establish a clear link with the cycle of sunspots, because at that time was insufficient data.
The 1980s, with a detailed analysis Wheeler's data, is the connection became clear.
After a more detailed study of the data seems to begin to discover the pattern by which IE most likely to start a war in the key points of the sunspot cycle. These are periods when geomagnetic activity is changing the fastest in the rapid increase in solar activity, or in a downward cycle, when sunspots are rapidly diminishing. In addition, we can see how it negatively affects the psychological mechanisms such as brain rhythms and hormone levels. In other words, wars could be a kind of mass psychosis. When you see the connection with physical mechanisms (such as IE electromagnetic pollution), it gives us some predictions about when it is likely that they could begin intensified aggression. Calculations show that we are facing another increase of intense solar activity in less than two years, roughly around 22 September 2010. NASA predicts that the activity reached a peak in 2012. year.
Changes in the Solar System
Five planets atmosphere and Earth's moon change. In the upper layers of Earth's atmosphere creates HO gas that did not exist in amounts that exists today. Scientists from the Russian Academy of Sciences say that it is not associated with global warming, CFCs or fluorocarbon emissions. They argue that the atmosphere of Jupiter, Uranus and Neptun also changing.
The Martian atmosphere becomes much thicker. In 1997. probe "Mars Observer" has lost one of its mirrors, which caused her fall. This happened because the atmosphere was about twice as much too dense, but NASA was calculated. Brightness and magnetic fields of planets are also changing. Venus shows a significant increase in its overall brightness, Jupiter's energetic charge has risen so high that there is now a visible tube of ionizing radiation, which is formed between the surface of Jupiter and its moon "Io." At the recently captured images can be seen a great power tube. Uranus and Neptune also are becoming brighter. The magnetic field of Jupiter, Uranus and Neptune are changing.
Jupiter's magnetic field has more than doubled, and Neptune's magnetic field is stronger. The Russians say that all three of these planets become radiant, and their atmospheric qualities are changing, but do not explain what that means. The Russians also report that looks at how Uranus and Neptune has recently been a reversal of the poles. When the space probe "Voyager II" flew by Uranus and Neptune, it seemed that the north and south magnetic poles substantially deviated from the spot where the earlier recordings was a half rotation. In one case, it is 50 degrees, and in another case, the difference was 10-odd degrees.
This new information on changes in the solar system comes at an interesting time for our planet. It is possible that for some time the celestial events play a role in shaping our lives on this planet, and that these changes that we see now in our sun, solar system and Earth's magnetic field could be just what transforms our world as we know it into something new . Only time will tell, but it seems that the future is already knocking at the door.
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End of Fossil Fuel Era an 'Exciting Time'
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Author and scientist Amory B. Lovins and the Rocky Mountain Institute see a bright future beyond dirty fuels... and sooner than you think
In an essay in the latest issue of Foreign Affairs and a recent interview with Yale Environment 360, Amory Lovins discusses his latest book, Reinventing Fire, written with his colleagues at the Rocking Mountain Institute, which looks at what a transition away from an economy and energy system based on fossil fuels towards one based on renewable energy would look like.
Amory B. Lovins of the Rocky Mountain Institute
"Weaning the United States from fossils fuels would require two big shifts," writes Lovins at Foreign Affairs, naming "oil and electricity" which he says are "distinct." He points out, "In the US, three-fourths of electricity powers building, three-fourths of oil fuels transportation, and the remaining oil and electricity run factories. So saving oil and electricity is chiefly about making buildings, vehicles, and factories far more efficient." This, admits Lovins, is "no small task."
Dwelling on the scale of the challenge, however, is not where Lovins devotes his energy. Instead, he looks at other "epochal energy shifts" that have occurred in history, like the end of the whale oil industry in the mid 19th century, where in just thirty years the whale oil industry went from bringing lighting to nearly every American household in 1850, to being essentially snuffed out by 1879, when Edison's electric lighting hit the scene. "Whales," writes Lovins, "had been accidently saved by technological innovators and profit-maximizing capitalists."
The point, of course, is not that we should look to 'profit-maximizing capitalists' to lead us to a clean energy future (though they will certainly play a role). The point is that we should definitely not expect whaling captains to lead us. And in this era, the whale ship captains are the captains of the big oil, coal, and gas companies and the politicians who do their bidding.
"The chief obstacle is not technology or economics," concludes Lovins, "but slow adoption." He writes:
Helping innovations catch on will take education, leadership, and rapid learning. But it does require reaching concensus on motives. If Americans agree what should be done, then they need not agree why. Whether one cares most about national security, health, the environment, or simply making money, saving and supplanting fossil fuels makes sense."
"Wise energy policy can grow from impeccably conservative roots-- [...]
Moving the United States off oil and coal will require Americans to trust in their own resourcefulness, ingenuity, and courage. These durable virtues can give the country fuel without fear; help set the world on a path beyond war, want, or waste; and turn energy from worrisome to worry-free, from risk to reward, from cost to profit."
A Clean Energy Plan
In the interview with Yale Environment 360 senior editor Fen Montaigne, Lovins discusses how business and society can pull off this transformation even if the U.S. Congress keeps failing to act, why climate change need not even enter the discussion, and why the oil industry will ultimately forego fossil fuels and jump aboard the green bandwagon. “One system is dying and others are struggling to be born,” says Lovins. “It’s a very exciting time.”
Yale Environment 360: Given that we’re in the midst of what could only be described as a fossil fuel boom, with the discovery of new unconventional sources and new oil sources being found all over the world, how do you speed this transition and get from here to there?
Amory Lovins: Well, I’m not sure what boom you’re talking about. When I read the Wall Street Journal, I see a headline a few weeks ago about coal running out of steam.
e360: China is consuming tremendous amounts of coal.
Lovins: Hang on — I look at the data and I find that in the United States, coal’s share of the electrical services market, which is 95 percent of its market for fuel, has fallen by a quarter from 2005 through 2010, displaced by cheaper gas, efficiency, and renewables. And then when you look in the forward prices and the options market, that spread is going to keep widening. And when I hear how cheap natural gas is, I remember that it’s also very volatile. This has nothing to do with the many uncertainties around fracking, which will take a decade to resolve — if they work out well, we’ll be satisfied with a new option; if they don’t, that’s okay because we won’t need that much gas, so we won’t be very disappointed.
e360: Certainly in China, India, and the developing world there is a fossil fuel boom going on.
Lovins: But in a global context, there is a remarkable boom in efficiency and renewables in China, the world leader in five renewables. Part of the story in China is that the extraordinary vitality of renewables is coming very largely from the vibrant private sector, while all of the nuclear and half the coal business are the old state enterprises. So the story of incumbents and insurgents is partly the story of the reshaping of the Chinese economy from the old and rather bureaucratic command organizations. That is, I think, an encouraging trend.
We must use our most effective institutions to end-run our least effective institutions.
Last I looked a couple of years ago, the private sector in China was something like 50 to 70 percent of the profits, the growth, and the new jobs. Of course there is still a lot of momentum in the coal bureaucracy in China and India, which together burned half the world’s coal and account for about three-quarters of the projected increase, but I think those projections are looking quite dubious. In China, for example, they have lately retired over 70 gigawatts of inefficient coal plants, so that their coal plant fleet is now more efficient than ours. In 2010, 59 percent of their net new [electricity] capacity was coal. It used to be much higher.
e360: You feel we’re in a period where fossil fuels over the next decade or two are going to be increasingly like whale oil?
Lovins: Yes.
e360: You’ve got the president of Shell writing a foreward to your book. There are prominent quotes from the president of Texaco in one section of the book. How do you persuade these oil companies that are making billions of dollars now and into the foreseeable future to get on board with this renewable energy revolution? What is going to persuade them to be on what you see as the right side of history?
Lovins: Mainly risk management, and as a member of the National Petroleum Council, having worked in this industry for 38 years, I’ve seen a lot of concern about risk. Oil is like airlines. It’s a great industry and a bad business. Look at its fundamentals. It is extremely capital-intensive, long lead time, based on a wasting asset of which you only own about 6 percent and the rest can be taxed away or confiscated at any time. It is a business overflowing with all kinds of risk — technical, political, financial. It is unpopular politically. Its subsidies are at some political risk in this country. Put all that together and you have a magnificent recipe for headaches. Why would you want to be in a business like that?
e360: You’re making huge profits at this point.
Lovins: Well, sometimes yes, and sometimes it gushes red ink. So the smarter leaders in that industry have been trying to get out of the business since at least 1973, and have constructed some pretty intelligent portfolios of both activities and options that are getting rather rapidly diversified. Some companies that were not very foresighted, even though they were operationally excellent, are starting to smell the coffee.
I think there is a bright future for what we now think of as the oil industry in the new energy era, using its formidable capabilities and assets, but in different ways. A lot of refineries will turn into biorefineries; a lot of drilling will go to geothermal, possibly carbon sequestration and other pursuits. The fuel logistics will diversify into hydrogen — which of course is mainly a business of the oil industry right now and it’s a very big business — and into electricity and biofuels. Shell is already the world’s biggest distributor of biofuels. The average cost of getting our U.S. transport system off oil is about $18 a barrel for the efficiency and electrification part, or if you include the biofuels to run the trucks and airplanes to the extent they’re not on hydrogen, it might be at most about $25 a barrel. So I don’t much care what the world oil price is, this is a better bet and it very much better manages the risks.
e360: In the spheres that you write about — transportation, electricity generation, industry — what pieces of the puzzle need to be put in place in the coming decade or so to do this massive scaling up that’s going to be required to attain your vision of an economy that by 2050 is primarily powered by renewable sources?
Lovins: Broadly we need to pay attention to allow or require full and fair competition, preferably at honest prices. And to use our most effective institutions to end-run our least effective institutions.
e360: For example?
Lovins: Well, we use private enterprise, co-evolving with civil society and sped up by military innovation, to end run Congress. The transition we describe requires no act of Congress. It’s led by business for profit.
e360: So you want the private sector to end-run the dysfunctional political system?
Lovins: At the federal level, yes. There are policies required to unlock or speed the transition we described, but they could all be done administratively or at the state level, where most of the action is.
e360: From a technological point of view, how do you scale up wind and solar to the point where it can be generating the volume of electricity that you envision by 2050?
Lovins: The way we’re scaling it up now. U.S. photovoltaics have doubled each of the last two years. World [photovoltaic] growth last year — a difficult year for many industries — was 70 percent. And 68 percent of Europe’s new capacity last year was solar and wind. Wind, for example, is generally competitive without subsidy, even though the global wind industry will of course shift its projects in a given year to wherever they get the most subsidy, as you would expect. But even without subsidy they have a very strong business case.
e360: So you foresee in the U.S., Europe, and China a steady accretion of this scale and volume for these new sources?
Lovins: Yes, and China is leading the plummeting cost and rocketing volume of most of the renewables. They’re the world leader in five. They aim to be in all. The ones they lead are photovoltaic, wind, small hydro, biogas, and solar thermal for hot water.
So this is actually quite a big business. Clean energy was a $260 billion investment flow in 2011. Europe has now more than one million new renewable jobs. The big winner is Germany. They have more solar workers than America has steel workers. [German Chancellor Angela] Merkel bet that it would be smarter to send their energy money to their own engineers, manufacturers, and installers than to keep paying it to [Russia’s] Gazprom. She’s right, and it was a winning bet.
e360: In your book you are not counting on any sort of miraculous silver bullet technologies.
Lovins: No, no new inventions.
e360: But do you think there will be within a matter of decades technologies we can’t envision that could even further accelerate this transition?
Lovins: Oh, yes. I think there will be many, and actually although we’re not counting on any new inventions, we do give examples of emerging technologies in the lab about to get to market that are going to be quite powerful. For example, windows whose ability to transmit or block heat is a function of the temperature of the glass, and that’s a passive property.
It doesn’t require any control system. That sort of thing is so revolutionary we haven’t even figured out how to use it yet. Or as another example, Tsutomu Shimomura, the computer security expert, has invented a way of controlling LED lighting in big buildings that gets rid of almost all of the wire and power supplies and controls, but gives superior control flexibility. And that should ultimately cut by manyfold the installed cost of those LED lighting systems and thus help them take over even faster in both new and old buildings. Fuel cells have already beaten the cost targets that we had expected. The list goes on.
Despite our woeful underinvestment in efficiency R&D, the technical progress here and abroad continues to accelerate with no end in sight and it’s not just in widgets. It’s also progress in new business models, new designs, ways of combining technologies more effectively to get expanding returns, not diminishing returns, new delivery channels that are rapidly maturing, new regulatory models. These things all together I think have put us irreversibly on the path to a new energy era, and a lot of it is an incumbents-versus-insurgents play where the incumbents have many intelligent ways they can respond and some dumb ways, one of which is called ostrich.
e360: Your book, in each of the main chapters, lays out detailed prescriptions — down to diagrams of factory piping — of how to improve efficiency and make advances. What has the reaction been to the book from corporations, from politicians?
Lovins: The reaction I have seen has been uniformly favorable, partly because it’s a trans-ideological approach that focuses on outcomes, not motives. Whether you most care about profits, jobs, and competitive advantage, or about national security or environmental stewardship and climate and public health — regardless of the reason, you’ll still want the outcomes. They’ll still make sense and make money, so let’s just do what we all agree ought to be done for whatever reason, not argue about what reason is most important, and then a lot of the stuff we may not agree about becomes superfluous. The military is very strongly on this track already — with both efficiency and resilient electric supply — for their own good reasons. We are not seeing so far political resistance to these ideas and we’re getting a very warm welcome in the business community.
e360: How big an impediment to your vision of how to go forward is the fact that many of the leaders of the Republican Party not only deny the existence of climate change, but belittle renewable energy. Is the political gridlock on this issue a big impediment to maybe moving forward?
Lovins: I don’t see it as a big impediment because we’re not relying on Congress to do anything. Again, you don’t have to believe climate science to think that the outcomes of Reinventing Fire are desirable. If you care
about either making money or national security, either of those suffices; you may even care about both together. Then you’re twice as motivated. We are counting in the analysis all externalities — carbon [reduction] and otherwise — as worth zero, a conservatively low estimate. And we still get a $5 trillion surplus from getting the U.S. completely off oil, coal, and nuclear energy and a third off natural gas by 2050, with a 2.6-fold bigger economy. That, I think, is an attractive outcome regardless of your political beliefs.
e360: Let’s say there’s a President Santorum or a President Romney, do you think that they could be persuaded once they’re in office to embrace a vision like this?
Lovins: I don’t know, but I don’t much care. Rocky Mountain Institute is non-partisan, and we observe that most states, including many strongly Republican states, have renewable portfolio standards. The renewable leader in the nation is Texas, which is not noted for being environmentally minded, but does care a lot about making money and is very good at it. That’s fine.
e360: On the issue of climate change, do you believe the climate movement has made a strategic error by focusing so much on the issue of warming and its impacts rather than on the positive economic message you propagate in the book?
Lovins: I think you could make that case. In fact, to go back to the beginning of the modern climate debate, I think that when the bogus studies were issued claiming that climate protection would be very costly, the environmental movement fell into a trap of saying it won’t cost that much and it’s worth it. What they should have said is, “No, you’ve got it wrong. Climate protection is not costly but profitable because it’s cheaper to save fuel than to buy fuel.”
So the whole climate conversation has been distorted by this error of mistaking cost for profits and that has blocked international negotiations, because it’s so much harder to talk about cost burden and sacrifice, what is it worth to save the climate and who should pay for it, than to talk about profits, jobs, and competitive advantage, which should have been the subject all along.
I think you could make that case. In fact, to go back to the beginning of the modern climate debate, I think that when the bogus studies were issued claiming that climate protection would be very costly, the environmental movement fell into a trap of saying it won’t cost that much and it’s worth it. What they should have said is, “No, you’ve got it wrong. Climate protection is not costly but profitable because it’s cheaper to save fuel than to buy fuel.”
So the whole climate conversation has been distorted by this error of mistaking cost for profits and that has blocked international negotiations, because it’s so much harder to talk about cost burden and sacrifice, what is it worth to save the climate and who should pay for it, than to talk about profits, jobs, and competitive advantage, which should have been the subject all along.
e360: When you look at your 2050 vision, yet you also look at all the carbon that’s still being burned, how do you reconcile the two?
Lovins: Well, one system is dying and others are struggling to be born. It’s a very exciting time, but I think the transitions that we need in how we design vehicles, buildings, and factories, and how we allow efficiency to compete with supply, are well under way. Most of the key sectors are already at or past their tipping point. And it’s clearest for oil, but will become clearer for coal that the stuff is becoming uncompetitive even at relatively low prices before it becomes unavailable even at high prices. It’s the whale oil story all over again. They ran out of customers before they ran out of whales.
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Amory Lovins at the Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies
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Author and scientist Amory B. Lovins and the Rocky Mountain Institute see a bright future beyond dirty fuels... and sooner than you think
In an essay in the latest issue of Foreign Affairs and a recent interview with Yale Environment 360, Amory Lovins discusses his latest book, Reinventing Fire, written with his colleagues at the Rocking Mountain Institute, which looks at what a transition away from an economy and energy system based on fossil fuels towards one based on renewable energy would look like.
Amory B. Lovins of the Rocky Mountain Institute"Weaning the United States from fossils fuels would require two big shifts," writes Lovins at Foreign Affairs, naming "oil and electricity" which he says are "distinct." He points out, "In the US, three-fourths of electricity powers building, three-fourths of oil fuels transportation, and the remaining oil and electricity run factories. So saving oil and electricity is chiefly about making buildings, vehicles, and factories far more efficient." This, admits Lovins, is "no small task."
Dwelling on the scale of the challenge, however, is not where Lovins devotes his energy. Instead, he looks at other "epochal energy shifts" that have occurred in history, like the end of the whale oil industry in the mid 19th century, where in just thirty years the whale oil industry went from bringing lighting to nearly every American household in 1850, to being essentially snuffed out by 1879, when Edison's electric lighting hit the scene. "Whales," writes Lovins, "had been accidently saved by technological innovators and profit-maximizing capitalists."
The point, of course, is not that we should look to 'profit-maximizing capitalists' to lead us to a clean energy future (though they will certainly play a role). The point is that we should definitely not expect whaling captains to lead us. And in this era, the whale ship captains are the captains of the big oil, coal, and gas companies and the politicians who do their bidding.
"The chief obstacle is not technology or economics," concludes Lovins, "but slow adoption." He writes:
Helping innovations catch on will take education, leadership, and rapid learning. But it does require reaching concensus on motives. If Americans agree what should be done, then they need not agree why. Whether one cares most about national security, health, the environment, or simply making money, saving and supplanting fossil fuels makes sense."
"Wise energy policy can grow from impeccably conservative roots-- [...]
Moving the United States off oil and coal will require Americans to trust in their own resourcefulness, ingenuity, and courage. These durable virtues can give the country fuel without fear; help set the world on a path beyond war, want, or waste; and turn energy from worrisome to worry-free, from risk to reward, from cost to profit."
A Clean Energy Plan
In the interview with Yale Environment 360 senior editor Fen Montaigne, Lovins discusses how business and society can pull off this transformation even if the U.S. Congress keeps failing to act, why climate change need not even enter the discussion, and why the oil industry will ultimately forego fossil fuels and jump aboard the green bandwagon. “One system is dying and others are struggling to be born,” says Lovins. “It’s a very exciting time.”
Yale Environment 360: Given that we’re in the midst of what could only be described as a fossil fuel boom, with the discovery of new unconventional sources and new oil sources being found all over the world, how do you speed this transition and get from here to there?
Amory Lovins: Well, I’m not sure what boom you’re talking about. When I read the Wall Street Journal, I see a headline a few weeks ago about coal running out of steam.
e360: China is consuming tremendous amounts of coal.
Lovins: Hang on — I look at the data and I find that in the United States, coal’s share of the electrical services market, which is 95 percent of its market for fuel, has fallen by a quarter from 2005 through 2010, displaced by cheaper gas, efficiency, and renewables. And then when you look in the forward prices and the options market, that spread is going to keep widening. And when I hear how cheap natural gas is, I remember that it’s also very volatile. This has nothing to do with the many uncertainties around fracking, which will take a decade to resolve — if they work out well, we’ll be satisfied with a new option; if they don’t, that’s okay because we won’t need that much gas, so we won’t be very disappointed.
e360: Certainly in China, India, and the developing world there is a fossil fuel boom going on.
Lovins: But in a global context, there is a remarkable boom in efficiency and renewables in China, the world leader in five renewables. Part of the story in China is that the extraordinary vitality of renewables is coming very largely from the vibrant private sector, while all of the nuclear and half the coal business are the old state enterprises. So the story of incumbents and insurgents is partly the story of the reshaping of the Chinese economy from the old and rather bureaucratic command organizations. That is, I think, an encouraging trend.
We must use our most effective institutions to end-run our least effective institutions.
Last I looked a couple of years ago, the private sector in China was something like 50 to 70 percent of the profits, the growth, and the new jobs. Of course there is still a lot of momentum in the coal bureaucracy in China and India, which together burned half the world’s coal and account for about three-quarters of the projected increase, but I think those projections are looking quite dubious. In China, for example, they have lately retired over 70 gigawatts of inefficient coal plants, so that their coal plant fleet is now more efficient than ours. In 2010, 59 percent of their net new [electricity] capacity was coal. It used to be much higher.
e360: You feel we’re in a period where fossil fuels over the next decade or two are going to be increasingly like whale oil?
Lovins: Yes.
e360: You’ve got the president of Shell writing a foreward to your book. There are prominent quotes from the president of Texaco in one section of the book. How do you persuade these oil companies that are making billions of dollars now and into the foreseeable future to get on board with this renewable energy revolution? What is going to persuade them to be on what you see as the right side of history?
Lovins: Mainly risk management, and as a member of the National Petroleum Council, having worked in this industry for 38 years, I’ve seen a lot of concern about risk. Oil is like airlines. It’s a great industry and a bad business. Look at its fundamentals. It is extremely capital-intensive, long lead time, based on a wasting asset of which you only own about 6 percent and the rest can be taxed away or confiscated at any time. It is a business overflowing with all kinds of risk — technical, political, financial. It is unpopular politically. Its subsidies are at some political risk in this country. Put all that together and you have a magnificent recipe for headaches. Why would you want to be in a business like that?
e360: You’re making huge profits at this point.
Lovins: Well, sometimes yes, and sometimes it gushes red ink. So the smarter leaders in that industry have been trying to get out of the business since at least 1973, and have constructed some pretty intelligent portfolios of both activities and options that are getting rather rapidly diversified. Some companies that were not very foresighted, even though they were operationally excellent, are starting to smell the coffee.
I think there is a bright future for what we now think of as the oil industry in the new energy era, using its formidable capabilities and assets, but in different ways. A lot of refineries will turn into biorefineries; a lot of drilling will go to geothermal, possibly carbon sequestration and other pursuits. The fuel logistics will diversify into hydrogen — which of course is mainly a business of the oil industry right now and it’s a very big business — and into electricity and biofuels. Shell is already the world’s biggest distributor of biofuels. The average cost of getting our U.S. transport system off oil is about $18 a barrel for the efficiency and electrification part, or if you include the biofuels to run the trucks and airplanes to the extent they’re not on hydrogen, it might be at most about $25 a barrel. So I don’t much care what the world oil price is, this is a better bet and it very much better manages the risks.
e360: In the spheres that you write about — transportation, electricity generation, industry — what pieces of the puzzle need to be put in place in the coming decade or so to do this massive scaling up that’s going to be required to attain your vision of an economy that by 2050 is primarily powered by renewable sources?
Lovins: Broadly we need to pay attention to allow or require full and fair competition, preferably at honest prices. And to use our most effective institutions to end-run our least effective institutions.
e360: For example?
Lovins: Well, we use private enterprise, co-evolving with civil society and sped up by military innovation, to end run Congress. The transition we describe requires no act of Congress. It’s led by business for profit.
e360: So you want the private sector to end-run the dysfunctional political system?
Lovins: At the federal level, yes. There are policies required to unlock or speed the transition we described, but they could all be done administratively or at the state level, where most of the action is.
e360: From a technological point of view, how do you scale up wind and solar to the point where it can be generating the volume of electricity that you envision by 2050?
Lovins: The way we’re scaling it up now. U.S. photovoltaics have doubled each of the last two years. World [photovoltaic] growth last year — a difficult year for many industries — was 70 percent. And 68 percent of Europe’s new capacity last year was solar and wind. Wind, for example, is generally competitive without subsidy, even though the global wind industry will of course shift its projects in a given year to wherever they get the most subsidy, as you would expect. But even without subsidy they have a very strong business case.
e360: So you foresee in the U.S., Europe, and China a steady accretion of this scale and volume for these new sources?
Lovins: Yes, and China is leading the plummeting cost and rocketing volume of most of the renewables. They’re the world leader in five. They aim to be in all. The ones they lead are photovoltaic, wind, small hydro, biogas, and solar thermal for hot water.
So this is actually quite a big business. Clean energy was a $260 billion investment flow in 2011. Europe has now more than one million new renewable jobs. The big winner is Germany. They have more solar workers than America has steel workers. [German Chancellor Angela] Merkel bet that it would be smarter to send their energy money to their own engineers, manufacturers, and installers than to keep paying it to [Russia’s] Gazprom. She’s right, and it was a winning bet.
e360: In your book you are not counting on any sort of miraculous silver bullet technologies.
Lovins: No, no new inventions.
e360: But do you think there will be within a matter of decades technologies we can’t envision that could even further accelerate this transition?
Lovins: Oh, yes. I think there will be many, and actually although we’re not counting on any new inventions, we do give examples of emerging technologies in the lab about to get to market that are going to be quite powerful. For example, windows whose ability to transmit or block heat is a function of the temperature of the glass, and that’s a passive property.
It doesn’t require any control system. That sort of thing is so revolutionary we haven’t even figured out how to use it yet. Or as another example, Tsutomu Shimomura, the computer security expert, has invented a way of controlling LED lighting in big buildings that gets rid of almost all of the wire and power supplies and controls, but gives superior control flexibility. And that should ultimately cut by manyfold the installed cost of those LED lighting systems and thus help them take over even faster in both new and old buildings. Fuel cells have already beaten the cost targets that we had expected. The list goes on.
Despite our woeful underinvestment in efficiency R&D, the technical progress here and abroad continues to accelerate with no end in sight and it’s not just in widgets. It’s also progress in new business models, new designs, ways of combining technologies more effectively to get expanding returns, not diminishing returns, new delivery channels that are rapidly maturing, new regulatory models. These things all together I think have put us irreversibly on the path to a new energy era, and a lot of it is an incumbents-versus-insurgents play where the incumbents have many intelligent ways they can respond and some dumb ways, one of which is called ostrich.
e360: Your book, in each of the main chapters, lays out detailed prescriptions — down to diagrams of factory piping — of how to improve efficiency and make advances. What has the reaction been to the book from corporations, from politicians?
Lovins: The reaction I have seen has been uniformly favorable, partly because it’s a trans-ideological approach that focuses on outcomes, not motives. Whether you most care about profits, jobs, and competitive advantage, or about national security or environmental stewardship and climate and public health — regardless of the reason, you’ll still want the outcomes. They’ll still make sense and make money, so let’s just do what we all agree ought to be done for whatever reason, not argue about what reason is most important, and then a lot of the stuff we may not agree about becomes superfluous. The military is very strongly on this track already — with both efficiency and resilient electric supply — for their own good reasons. We are not seeing so far political resistance to these ideas and we’re getting a very warm welcome in the business community.
e360: How big an impediment to your vision of how to go forward is the fact that many of the leaders of the Republican Party not only deny the existence of climate change, but belittle renewable energy. Is the political gridlock on this issue a big impediment to maybe moving forward?
Lovins: I don’t see it as a big impediment because we’re not relying on Congress to do anything. Again, you don’t have to believe climate science to think that the outcomes of Reinventing Fire are desirable. If you care
about either making money or national security, either of those suffices; you may even care about both together. Then you’re twice as motivated. We are counting in the analysis all externalities — carbon [reduction] and otherwise — as worth zero, a conservatively low estimate. And we still get a $5 trillion surplus from getting the U.S. completely off oil, coal, and nuclear energy and a third off natural gas by 2050, with a 2.6-fold bigger economy. That, I think, is an attractive outcome regardless of your political beliefs.
e360: Let’s say there’s a President Santorum or a President Romney, do you think that they could be persuaded once they’re in office to embrace a vision like this?
Lovins: I don’t know, but I don’t much care. Rocky Mountain Institute is non-partisan, and we observe that most states, including many strongly Republican states, have renewable portfolio standards. The renewable leader in the nation is Texas, which is not noted for being environmentally minded, but does care a lot about making money and is very good at it. That’s fine.
e360: On the issue of climate change, do you believe the climate movement has made a strategic error by focusing so much on the issue of warming and its impacts rather than on the positive economic message you propagate in the book?
Lovins: I think you could make that case. In fact, to go back to the beginning of the modern climate debate, I think that when the bogus studies were issued claiming that climate protection would be very costly, the environmental movement fell into a trap of saying it won’t cost that much and it’s worth it. What they should have said is, “No, you’ve got it wrong. Climate protection is not costly but profitable because it’s cheaper to save fuel than to buy fuel.”
So the whole climate conversation has been distorted by this error of mistaking cost for profits and that has blocked international negotiations, because it’s so much harder to talk about cost burden and sacrifice, what is it worth to save the climate and who should pay for it, than to talk about profits, jobs, and competitive advantage, which should have been the subject all along.
I think you could make that case. In fact, to go back to the beginning of the modern climate debate, I think that when the bogus studies were issued claiming that climate protection would be very costly, the environmental movement fell into a trap of saying it won’t cost that much and it’s worth it. What they should have said is, “No, you’ve got it wrong. Climate protection is not costly but profitable because it’s cheaper to save fuel than to buy fuel.”
So the whole climate conversation has been distorted by this error of mistaking cost for profits and that has blocked international negotiations, because it’s so much harder to talk about cost burden and sacrifice, what is it worth to save the climate and who should pay for it, than to talk about profits, jobs, and competitive advantage, which should have been the subject all along.
e360: When you look at your 2050 vision, yet you also look at all the carbon that’s still being burned, how do you reconcile the two?
Lovins: Well, one system is dying and others are struggling to be born. It’s a very exciting time, but I think the transitions that we need in how we design vehicles, buildings, and factories, and how we allow efficiency to compete with supply, are well under way. Most of the key sectors are already at or past their tipping point. And it’s clearest for oil, but will become clearer for coal that the stuff is becoming uncompetitive even at relatively low prices before it becomes unavailable even at high prices. It’s the whale oil story all over again. They ran out of customers before they ran out of whales.
Video
Amory Lovins at the Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies
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Planet X and the killer comets
To contact us Click HERE
Another entry has just been added in the contest to devise an astronomical theory explaining the periodic showers of comets that are trought by many to wipe out life forms on earth every 26 million years or so (SN: 10/11/83, p. 212). Astrophysicist Daniel P. Whitmire and John J. Matese at the University of Southwestern Louisiana in Lafayette created the new theory by merging two ideas that were proposed in the past for reasons totally unrelated to periodic comet impacts and mass extinctions: a tenth planet, dubbed Planet X and envisioned to reside beyond the orbit of Pluto; and a disk or belt of comets throught to lie in the plane of the solar system beyond Neptune.
By fashioning a complex motion for Planet X, the theorists designed a model in which the planet periodically crosses near the belt of comets, disrupting their orbits and sending them to rain on the solar system.
So far their paper, published in the Jan. 3 NATURE and presented Jan. 11 at a symposium on the Galaxy and the Solar System (held just before the annual meeting of the american astronomical society) in Tucson, Ariz., has received limited scrutiny. Other scientists, including proponents of rival theories, call the Planet X concept imaginative, even ingenious, but say that it is too hard to judge the model iwthout more detailed calculations.
In the scenario developed by whitmire and Matese, Planet X would move at an average distance from the sun of 100 astronomical units (AU), or 100 times the distance between the earth and the sun, in a moderately elliptical orbit that is inclined from the plane of the solar system at an angle of about 45 degrees. Planet X is envisioned to complete one orbit every 1,000 years. But the orbit itself, like the orbits of other planets, would revolve, or precess, around the sun in this model because of the gravitational tugs from the other planets. Comet showers would be triggered every 28 million years -- whenever the orbit moves close to the comet belt.
Daniel P. Whitmire and John J. Matese
Whitmire and Matese propose that the belt, which was orginally hypothesized in conjunction with theories on the origin of the solar system, extends from 35 to 70 AU. From 70 to 130 AU, Planet X would have cleared a gap in the belt, which then resumes beyond 130 AU. While this comet belt has never been seen sys Whitmire, it is widely thought to exist, especially the section of the belt closest to the sun. The gravitational pull of Planet X would dislodge comets near the gap when either the perihelion (point on the orbit closest to the sun) brushes by the inner edge of the gap, or the aphelion (point farther from the sun) graces the outer gap edge, although Whitmire believes the former effect is stronger than the latter since the comet belt is most dense closest to the sun. Whitmire sees two major advantages of the Planet X approach over the competing Nemesis theory, of which Whitmire was in fact one of the original creators. Nemesis is the name of the proposed sister star to the sun that is envisioned to intrude on the so-called Oort cloud of comets at distances much farther from the sun than the proposed orbit of Planet X (SN: 4/21/84, p. 250).
With Planet X, "we're not postulating the existence of anything that hasn't already been postulated before for other reasons," says Whitmire. The idea that there could be an extra planet cruising the periphery of the planetary system has been put forth a number of times over the last 100 years in order to account for the observed deviations in the motions of the known outermost planets from their predicted courses (SN: 1/31/81, p. 68). While other suns are known to have companion stars, there is no independent astronomical evidence that Nemesis exists, Whitmire says. Moreover, past studies have concluded that the "missing planet" should have 1 to 5 times the mass of the earth and should be found 50 to 100 AU from the sun, Characteristics consistent with Whitmire and Matese's Planet X theory for comet impacts.
The second advantage, according to Whitmire, is that the orbit of Planet X, being much closer to the sun than Nemesis, would be very stable. Recent calculations on the orbit of Nemesis, on the other hand, indicate that its period has changed by 15 percent over the last 250 million years because of the gravitational nudges from other bodies (SN: 11/3/84, p. 279). "This is not necessarily a fatal objection to Nemesis, but it's fthe one that's most often raised," he explains.
Both the Planet X and Nemesis ideas can accommodate a range of values for the period, which is an asset at present because there is some uncertainty and disagreement over the exact period for the fossil, crater and other geological records. But this flexibility is also a disadvantage, says Richard B. Stothers at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, because the period can't be used to make testable predictions with either theory.
Stothers and co-worker Michael R. Rampino prefer a model in which the solar system oscillates through the galactic plane at the known time interval of 33 million years -- corresponding to periodicities the researchers claim to see in geological records (SN: 1/12/85, p.24).
All of the scientists involved in the debate do agree that the solution will depend on moe accurate dating of the geological and fossil records. Astronomers have also been looking for Nemesis. And, according to Ray Reynolds at NASA Ames Research Center in Moffett Field, Calif., who with co-workers had been planning to search for Planet X for a number of years, the data from the Infrared Astronomy Satellite (IRAS) have just been put in a form that can be analyzed to look for Planet X.
One of the reason why Planet X may not have been found in the past, says Whitmire, is that previous surveys concentrated on the Northern Hemisphere while recent calculations show that Planet X, if it exists, is more likely to be found in the Southern Hemisphere. The IRAS data cover both hemispheres.
In the meantime, comments Stothers, "I think we haven't seen the last of the astronomical mechanisms. I have a stack of preprints related to all this on my desk.... The field is full of flowers."
COPYRIGHT 1985 Science Service, Inc.
COPYRIGHT 2004 Gale Group
Print Page
Another entry has just been added in the contest to devise an astronomical theory explaining the periodic showers of comets that are trought by many to wipe out life forms on earth every 26 million years or so (SN: 10/11/83, p. 212). Astrophysicist Daniel P. Whitmire and John J. Matese at the University of Southwestern Louisiana in Lafayette created the new theory by merging two ideas that were proposed in the past for reasons totally unrelated to periodic comet impacts and mass extinctions: a tenth planet, dubbed Planet X and envisioned to reside beyond the orbit of Pluto; and a disk or belt of comets throught to lie in the plane of the solar system beyond Neptune.
By fashioning a complex motion for Planet X, the theorists designed a model in which the planet periodically crosses near the belt of comets, disrupting their orbits and sending them to rain on the solar system.
So far their paper, published in the Jan. 3 NATURE and presented Jan. 11 at a symposium on the Galaxy and the Solar System (held just before the annual meeting of the american astronomical society) in Tucson, Ariz., has received limited scrutiny. Other scientists, including proponents of rival theories, call the Planet X concept imaginative, even ingenious, but say that it is too hard to judge the model iwthout more detailed calculations.
In the scenario developed by whitmire and Matese, Planet X would move at an average distance from the sun of 100 astronomical units (AU), or 100 times the distance between the earth and the sun, in a moderately elliptical orbit that is inclined from the plane of the solar system at an angle of about 45 degrees. Planet X is envisioned to complete one orbit every 1,000 years. But the orbit itself, like the orbits of other planets, would revolve, or precess, around the sun in this model because of the gravitational tugs from the other planets. Comet showers would be triggered every 28 million years -- whenever the orbit moves close to the comet belt.
Daniel P. Whitmire and John J. Matese
Whitmire and Matese propose that the belt, which was orginally hypothesized in conjunction with theories on the origin of the solar system, extends from 35 to 70 AU. From 70 to 130 AU, Planet X would have cleared a gap in the belt, which then resumes beyond 130 AU. While this comet belt has never been seen sys Whitmire, it is widely thought to exist, especially the section of the belt closest to the sun. The gravitational pull of Planet X would dislodge comets near the gap when either the perihelion (point on the orbit closest to the sun) brushes by the inner edge of the gap, or the aphelion (point farther from the sun) graces the outer gap edge, although Whitmire believes the former effect is stronger than the latter since the comet belt is most dense closest to the sun. Whitmire sees two major advantages of the Planet X approach over the competing Nemesis theory, of which Whitmire was in fact one of the original creators. Nemesis is the name of the proposed sister star to the sun that is envisioned to intrude on the so-called Oort cloud of comets at distances much farther from the sun than the proposed orbit of Planet X (SN: 4/21/84, p. 250).
With Planet X, "we're not postulating the existence of anything that hasn't already been postulated before for other reasons," says Whitmire. The idea that there could be an extra planet cruising the periphery of the planetary system has been put forth a number of times over the last 100 years in order to account for the observed deviations in the motions of the known outermost planets from their predicted courses (SN: 1/31/81, p. 68). While other suns are known to have companion stars, there is no independent astronomical evidence that Nemesis exists, Whitmire says. Moreover, past studies have concluded that the "missing planet" should have 1 to 5 times the mass of the earth and should be found 50 to 100 AU from the sun, Characteristics consistent with Whitmire and Matese's Planet X theory for comet impacts.
The second advantage, according to Whitmire, is that the orbit of Planet X, being much closer to the sun than Nemesis, would be very stable. Recent calculations on the orbit of Nemesis, on the other hand, indicate that its period has changed by 15 percent over the last 250 million years because of the gravitational nudges from other bodies (SN: 11/3/84, p. 279). "This is not necessarily a fatal objection to Nemesis, but it's fthe one that's most often raised," he explains.
Both the Planet X and Nemesis ideas can accommodate a range of values for the period, which is an asset at present because there is some uncertainty and disagreement over the exact period for the fossil, crater and other geological records. But this flexibility is also a disadvantage, says Richard B. Stothers at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, because the period can't be used to make testable predictions with either theory.
Stothers and co-worker Michael R. Rampino prefer a model in which the solar system oscillates through the galactic plane at the known time interval of 33 million years -- corresponding to periodicities the researchers claim to see in geological records (SN: 1/12/85, p.24).
All of the scientists involved in the debate do agree that the solution will depend on moe accurate dating of the geological and fossil records. Astronomers have also been looking for Nemesis. And, according to Ray Reynolds at NASA Ames Research Center in Moffett Field, Calif., who with co-workers had been planning to search for Planet X for a number of years, the data from the Infrared Astronomy Satellite (IRAS) have just been put in a form that can be analyzed to look for Planet X.
One of the reason why Planet X may not have been found in the past, says Whitmire, is that previous surveys concentrated on the Northern Hemisphere while recent calculations show that Planet X, if it exists, is more likely to be found in the Southern Hemisphere. The IRAS data cover both hemispheres.
In the meantime, comments Stothers, "I think we haven't seen the last of the astronomical mechanisms. I have a stack of preprints related to all this on my desk.... The field is full of flowers."
COPYRIGHT 1985 Science Service, Inc.
COPYRIGHT 2004 Gale Group
Print Page
7 Temmuz 2012 Cumartesi
Episode 36: Vivian Girls
To contact us Click HERE
Air Date: March 06, 2011.
Download
1. Shearing Pinx - Filthy Pig
2. Fist City - Blow
3. Moby Dicks - All The Time
4. Rebecca's Room - Purgatory
5. Lindberg Line - Juggernaut
6. The Two Koreas - Hotel Christiana
7. White Woods - Ballet Tea
8. Vivian Girls - Dance (If You Wanna)
9. Vivian Girls - Surfin' Away
10. Vivian Girls - Where Do You Run To
11. Vivian Girls - Wild Eyes
12. Vivian Girls - Walking Alone At Night
13. Vivian Girls - The End
14. Vivian Girls - Double Vision
15. La Sera - Hold
16. The Babies - Personality
17, Vivian Girls - Light In Your Eyes
Air Date: March 06, 2011.
Download
1. Shearing Pinx - Filthy Pig
2. Fist City - Blow
3. Moby Dicks - All The Time
4. Rebecca's Room - Purgatory
5. Lindberg Line - Juggernaut
6. The Two Koreas - Hotel Christiana
7. White Woods - Ballet Tea
8. Vivian Girls - Dance (If You Wanna)
9. Vivian Girls - Surfin' Away
10. Vivian Girls - Where Do You Run To
11. Vivian Girls - Wild Eyes
12. Vivian Girls - Walking Alone At Night
13. Vivian Girls - The End
14. Vivian Girls - Double Vision
15. La Sera - Hold
16. The Babies - Personality
17, Vivian Girls - Light In Your Eyes
Episode 37: Belong
To contact us Click HERE
Air date: March 13, 2011.
Download
1. Jazz - Your Stuff
2. D'Eon - Recession Proof
3. Tim Hecker - In The Air I
4. Colin Stetson - The Righteous Wrath of an Honest Man
5. Terror Bird - Human Life
6. Peaking Lights - Amazing and Wonderful
7. Belong - Come See
8. Belong - Red Velvet or Nothing
9. Belong - A Sunny Place for Shady People
10. Belong - Late Night
11. Belong - Common Era
12. Belong - Perfect Life
Air date: March 13, 2011.
Download
1. Jazz - Your Stuff
2. D'Eon - Recession Proof
3. Tim Hecker - In The Air I
4. Colin Stetson - The Righteous Wrath of an Honest Man
5. Terror Bird - Human Life
6. Peaking Lights - Amazing and Wonderful
7. Belong - Come See
8. Belong - Red Velvet or Nothing
9. Belong - A Sunny Place for Shady People
10. Belong - Late Night
11. Belong - Common Era
12. Belong - Perfect Life
Episode 38: Ian Svenonius, Pt. 1
To contact us Click HERE
Thanks to Steve Guy and James Goddard.
Air Date: March 20, 2011.
Download
1. Chalk Circle - Reflection
2. Sharp Ends - Broadview Pressure Test
3. Krang - Speed of Tent
4. Topless Mongos - Alberta Burning Up
5. Tension Slips - Head Smashed In Buffalo Jump
6. The Famines - Princess Louise Caroline
7. Radians - Alberta Advantage
8. The Throwaways - Wasteland
9. Nü Sensae - Tea Swamp Park
10. Shearing Pinx - Golden Spruce
11. Ahna - Old Ones
12. Shipyards - Kool Treats, Cool Treets
13. Time Copz - Laptop DJs
14. Chain and the Gang - Livin' Rough
15. Nation of Ulysses - The Sound of Young America
16. Nation of Ulysses - Target: USA
17. Nation of Ulysses - A Comment On Ritual
18. Cupid Car Club - Grape Juice Plus
19. The Make-Up - We Can't Be Contained
20. The Make-Up - I Want Some
21. The Make-Up - Tell It Like It Will Be
22. The Make-Up - Live In The Rhythm Hive
23. The Make-Up - Come On Let's Spawn
Thanks to Steve Guy and James Goddard.
Air Date: March 20, 2011.
Download
1. Chalk Circle - Reflection
2. Sharp Ends - Broadview Pressure Test
3. Krang - Speed of Tent
4. Topless Mongos - Alberta Burning Up
5. Tension Slips - Head Smashed In Buffalo Jump
6. The Famines - Princess Louise Caroline
7. Radians - Alberta Advantage
8. The Throwaways - Wasteland
9. Nü Sensae - Tea Swamp Park
10. Shearing Pinx - Golden Spruce
11. Ahna - Old Ones
12. Shipyards - Kool Treats, Cool Treets
13. Time Copz - Laptop DJs
14. Chain and the Gang - Livin' Rough
15. Nation of Ulysses - The Sound of Young America
16. Nation of Ulysses - Target: USA
17. Nation of Ulysses - A Comment On Ritual
18. Cupid Car Club - Grape Juice Plus
19. The Make-Up - We Can't Be Contained
20. The Make-Up - I Want Some
21. The Make-Up - Tell It Like It Will Be
22. The Make-Up - Live In The Rhythm Hive
23. The Make-Up - Come On Let's Spawn
Sunday Soul - You'll Never Find Another Love Like Mine
To contact us Click HERE
goodbye my lover
You'll never find another love like mineSomeone who needs you like I doYou'll never see what you've found in meYou'll keep searching and searching your whole life throughWhoa, I don't wish you no bad luck, babyBut there's no ifs and buts or maybes
You're gonna, You're gonna miss (miss my lovin')You're gonna miss my lovin' (you're gonna miss my lovin')I know you're gonna my lovin' (you're gonna miss my lovin')You're gonna miss, you're gonna miss my lo-o-ove
Lou Rawls - You'll Never Find Another Love Like Mine : You'll Never Find Another Love Like Mine 7"
Lou Rawls - Let's Fall In Love All Over Again : You'll Never Find Another Love Like Mine 7" B-side
Find them both on All Things In Time.
goodbye my lover
You'll never find another love like mineSomeone who needs you like I doYou'll never see what you've found in meYou'll keep searching and searching your whole life throughWhoa, I don't wish you no bad luck, babyBut there's no ifs and buts or maybes
You're gonna, You're gonna miss (miss my lovin')You're gonna miss my lovin' (you're gonna miss my lovin')I know you're gonna my lovin' (you're gonna miss my lovin')You're gonna miss, you're gonna miss my lo-o-ove
Lou Rawls - You'll Never Find Another Love Like Mine : You'll Never Find Another Love Like Mine 7"
Lou Rawls - Let's Fall In Love All Over Again : You'll Never Find Another Love Like Mine 7" B-side
Find them both on All Things In Time.
Doin' It Again
To contact us Click HERE
So the one or two of you still reading might have noticed that after nearly four months absence, MISB has resurfaced, at least temporarily, for a gasp of air. It is by far the longest I've gone without sharing a song or two since it began almost six years ago (yikes, that's something like the equivalent of the Triassic period in blog years I think). Asking a magic 8 ball about its survival would reveal an answer such as "reply hazy, try again," which is to say I'm not so certain of it myself. In the meantime though, it's got a new look and a new short-term lease on life.
I settled upon a few New Year's resolutions for 2012, and when sharing them with others I prefaced them with a quote from one of my favorite authors, Henry David Thoreau: "The mass of men lead lives of quiet desperation and go to the grave with the song still in them."
I suppose I still have a few songs left in me to share. Happy New Years.
So the one or two of you still reading might have noticed that after nearly four months absence, MISB has resurfaced, at least temporarily, for a gasp of air. It is by far the longest I've gone without sharing a song or two since it began almost six years ago (yikes, that's something like the equivalent of the Triassic period in blog years I think). Asking a magic 8 ball about its survival would reveal an answer such as "reply hazy, try again," which is to say I'm not so certain of it myself. In the meantime though, it's got a new look and a new short-term lease on life.
I settled upon a few New Year's resolutions for 2012, and when sharing them with others I prefaced them with a quote from one of my favorite authors, Henry David Thoreau: "The mass of men lead lives of quiet desperation and go to the grave with the song still in them."
I suppose I still have a few songs left in me to share. Happy New Years.
5 Temmuz 2012 Perşembe
Episode 39: Ian Svenonius, Pt. 2
To contact us Click HERE
Thanks to Steve Guy and Amanda Balsys.
Air Date: March 27, 2011.
Download
1. Plutonium Farmers - Drag
2. Long Long Long - Take Time
3. Bloodhouse - Magic Tipi
4. Omma Cobba - Police Man
5. CROSSS - Backbone
6. Lumerians - Hashshashin
7. Anagram - Those Were The Days
8. David Candy - Incomprehensibly Yours
9. Weird War - Man Is Money
10. Scene Creamers - Wet Paint
11. Weird War - Grand Fraud
12. Weird War - Earth, Mama, Woman, Girl, Child
13. Chain and the Gang - Deathbed Confession
14. Chain and the Gang - I've Got Privilege
Thanks to Steve Guy and Amanda Balsys.
Air Date: March 27, 2011.
Download
1. Plutonium Farmers - Drag
2. Long Long Long - Take Time
3. Bloodhouse - Magic Tipi
4. Omma Cobba - Police Man
5. CROSSS - Backbone
6. Lumerians - Hashshashin
7. Anagram - Those Were The Days
8. David Candy - Incomprehensibly Yours
9. Weird War - Man Is Money
10. Scene Creamers - Wet Paint
11. Weird War - Grand Fraud
12. Weird War - Earth, Mama, Woman, Girl, Child
13. Chain and the Gang - Deathbed Confession
14. Chain and the Gang - I've Got Privilege
Episode 40: Fans of Bad Productions Records
To contact us Click HERE
Special thanks to Carlyn Brown and Adam Weaver.
Air date: April 10, 2011.
Download
1. Dull Senses - Out or In
2. Kick Gut - Dead Towers
3. Topless Mongos - Theme from The Human Centipede
4. Timecopz - Shit City
5. Grown-ups - Bad Poetry
6. Rape Revenge - Car Ride With Vivisection Intern
7. Fist City - Cleaner
8. Lantern - Devil's Rope Revisited
9. The Ether - 96 Tears
10. Propaghandi - The Overtly Political But Oh So Personal Song
11. Dirty Bird - I May Be Ugly
12. Danko Jones - Samuel Sin
13. Rubber Girlfriend - Queen of the Neighbourhood
14. Daddy's Hands - I Hate Z Pank
15. Chitz - Break the Cycle
16. Doomtown - Slaves
17. Submission Hold - All People Are Created Equal
18. Equation of State - My Suggestion is You Fuck Off
19. Ignatz - Faint
20. Seized - The Drowning
21. Bag of Nines - We Bleed
Air date: April 10, 2011.
Download
1. Dull Senses - Out or In
2. Kick Gut - Dead Towers
3. Topless Mongos - Theme from The Human Centipede
4. Timecopz - Shit City
5. Grown-ups - Bad Poetry
6. Rape Revenge - Car Ride With Vivisection Intern
7. Fist City - Cleaner
8. Lantern - Devil's Rope Revisited
9. The Ether - 96 Tears
10. Propaghandi - The Overtly Political But Oh So Personal Song
11. Dirty Bird - I May Be Ugly
12. Danko Jones - Samuel Sin
13. Rubber Girlfriend - Queen of the Neighbourhood
14. Daddy's Hands - I Hate Z Pank
15. Chitz - Break the Cycle
16. Doomtown - Slaves
17. Submission Hold - All People Are Created Equal
18. Equation of State - My Suggestion is You Fuck Off
19. Ignatz - Faint
20. Seized - The Drowning
21. Bag of Nines - We Bleed
Episode 41: Sebadoh
To contact us Click HERE
Air Date: April 17, 2011.
Download
1. The Breeders - The Freed Pig
2. Iceage - Remember
3. Young Widows - Miss Tambourine Wrist
4. Birth - Emerging Manhood
5. Black Angels - Ronettes
6. Puffy Areolas - My Hell
7. Sebadoh - Careful
8. Sebadoh - The Lorax
9. Sebadoh - Sickles and Hammers
10. Sebadoh - Scars, Four Eyes
11. Sebadoh - Pink Moon
12. Sebadoh - Sacred Attention
13. Sebadoh - Got It
14. Sebadoh - Not Too Amused
15. Sebadoh - Beauty of the Ride
16. Sebadoh - Zoned Out
17. Sebadoh - Decide
Air Date: April 17, 2011.
Download
1. The Breeders - The Freed Pig
2. Iceage - Remember
3. Young Widows - Miss Tambourine Wrist
4. Birth - Emerging Manhood
5. Black Angels - Ronettes
6. Puffy Areolas - My Hell
7. Sebadoh - Careful
8. Sebadoh - The Lorax
9. Sebadoh - Sickles and Hammers
10. Sebadoh - Scars, Four Eyes
11. Sebadoh - Pink Moon
12. Sebadoh - Sacred Attention
13. Sebadoh - Got It
14. Sebadoh - Not Too Amused
15. Sebadoh - Beauty of the Ride
16. Sebadoh - Zoned Out
17. Sebadoh - Decide
Episode 42: Skeletons, Pt. 1
To contact us Click HERE
Air date: April 24, 2011.
Download
1. Long Long Long - Sure Sometimes You Win
2. D'Eon - Telepathy
3. Grimes - Crystal Ball
4. The Alps - Reflections For Peter Green
5. GDC - D'une Journée
6. Total Control - Pyre Island
7. Trust - Trinity
8. Skeletons - Grandma
9. Skeletons - Try Not To Aim Your Airplane At Me
10. Skeletons - A Male Angel Means Business
11. Skeletons - This is My Dreams Come True
12. Skeletons and the Girl-Faced Boys - "Git"
13. Skeletons and the Girl-Faced Boys - We Won't Be Proud, No No No
Air date: April 24, 2011.
Download
1. Long Long Long - Sure Sometimes You Win
2. D'Eon - Telepathy
3. Grimes - Crystal Ball
4. The Alps - Reflections For Peter Green
5. GDC - D'une Journée
6. Total Control - Pyre Island
7. Trust - Trinity
8. Skeletons - Grandma
9. Skeletons - Try Not To Aim Your Airplane At Me
10. Skeletons - A Male Angel Means Business
11. Skeletons - This is My Dreams Come True
12. Skeletons and the Girl-Faced Boys - "Git"
13. Skeletons and the Girl-Faced Boys - We Won't Be Proud, No No No
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